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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

I think some bears underestimate $PLTR's model expertise. We have argued that Palantir had more model expertise than it had shown publicly, and that lacking its own foundation model did not put it at the competitive disadvantage those bears assumed. The earlier NVIDIA partnership, which included NeMo Retriever and Nemotron, was my first clue. I see the public Nemotron results as evidence of that expertise. These results fit our argument and were what I expected. Palantir's slide on McCarthy's construction requests for information shows a tuned Nemotron model outperforming Sonnet and Astra on classification. FourWeekMBA reads the chart, which has no data labels, as approximately 73% balanced accuracy for tuned Nemotron, approximately 66% for Sonnet and approximately 62% for Astra. On a cost basis the slide leaves unexplained, FourWeekMBA places Nemotron at approximately $0.10 per million tokens. The slide leaves open whether that includes hosting, tuning and Palantir's software fees. I would want the full customer cost comparison to judge the savings. I still regard Nemotron as a weak starting model. If Western developers make state-of-the-art open-source models available, I expect Palantir to use customer data, task-specific benchmarks and tuning to deliver further improvements in performance and cost. That could make Palantir economical for smaller enterprises as well as very large ones. Savings on model usage could cover Palantir's software premium if customers can move enough work to cheaper tuned models while maintaining the quality they need. As customers spend more on tokens relative to software, the potential savings grow. I expect Palantir's model expertise to become more valuable because it could reduce a larger part of the customer's total bill.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

I’m just calling out what I see with a failure in corporate communication, when so much is at stake. I’m really not sure why SK Hynix/Samsung representing SK’s economy let narratives of memory oversupply be dominated by their own customers on X. Or why $CBRS, which lost billions in valuation after the short seller report, is waiting for an analyst question in earnings to fix the damage Or why many of the “guppies” that would face a death in the Neocloud market aren’t actively fighting back against that claim here. A lot of narratives and claims originated and were distributed via X. Even if you don’t like Elon or X, even the Democratic Party combats narratives here as seen with the ratio on the VP’s New York post I don’t see why this can’t be done with AI companies calling BS on $4 B300 price gluts.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$MFC the spotlight has shifted off private credit but the issues have not gone away. MFC is in my opinion one of the more overlooked violators stuffing their life insurance investments with outsized exposure to private credit and cre. Just look under the hood of their earnings tonight. "𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬? Alternative long-duration assets missed expected returns by $153 million post-tax, marking six straight negative quarters and $1.35 billion of cumulative shortfalls by our math. Keeping unchanged return assumptions turns recurring investment shortfalls into excluded below-the-line charges every quarter."

Investor Letters

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Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

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