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Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
$MRX is now a 4x since we first flagged it at the time of the IPO, with earnings roughly 3x in the last 3 years. We have flagged every move along the way and we wrote 2 company deep dives. For our subs, this one will have paid for a lifetime of KEDM. https://t.co/LMajGXWBWK https://t.co/IVEamHzN2o
Chinese stockbrokers FUTU $FUTU and Up Fintech $TIGR are taking a beating after the Chinese securities regulator ordered all unauthorized Mainland accounts to be closed within 2 years, with only sell orders and fund withdrawals allowed. Both companies will be fined, but a rumored 1.85b CNY fine for FUTU is less than 2 months of profit. For FUTU, mainlanders are 13% of accounts but closer to 20% of total assets and revenue. FUTU's rapid growth in HK and SE Asia has diversified the business in recent years, and the loss of Chinese customers is less than 1 year's worth of customer growth outside China. What remains is a faster-growing, HK/SE Asia consumer play with no China risk, which probably trades at 8x P/E with net cash. That is, if this was the last shoe to drop and Mother China isn’t intent on ruining them.
Icon $ICLR finally published their restated financials. The revenue had been overstated by roughly 1% in 2024 and 2025. With shares up 40 percent since we added this name, we're declaring victory and will remove this from the monitor. We doubt AI will fully disrupt the others; this narrative will probably pressure the multiple going forward.
JDP Capital @Jeremy_Deal is quite bullish on Cerebras Systems $CBRS, which is currently trading 50% below its post IPO peak. According to the Fund, given its revenue under contract, the stock could be more than $1,000 per share within the next few years vs. today's $186. Another take from the Q2 letter: “Drug discovery may be one of the largest beneficiaries of AI of any industry on earth as the companies with the most proprietary data and the deepest clinical histories will widen their advantages”. JDP’s new position in this field was Eli Lilly $LLY.
Voss Value Fund @CapitalVoss initiated a position in Versigent PLC $VGNT, a recent spin-off of Aptiv $APTV. The Fund said the company is an entrenched global oligopolist in high-complexity automotive wire harnesses, with content in one of every six vehicles built worldwide and nine of the ten largest OEMs as customers. Yet it trades at roughly 5x EV/EBITDA, meaning there’s substantial upside.
Dine Brands $DIN popped another buyback, this time $100m (~25% of the market cap). They have already bought back roughly 17% of s/o over the last three quarters. https://t.co/m9RZas23Ij
Great things happen when strong tailwinds coincide with event-driven change. We shared our thesis on select payment companies back in November, while flagging Remitly $RELY's CEO change and aggressive RSU package for the incoming CEO. RELY continues to execute, and CEO S. Gunningham clearly sees an opportunity to keep costs flat while continuing their 20%+ growth
Versant $VSNT, a recent Comcast spin now seems to have found its way up. Weak price action though since the spin on classic spin dynamics, a ‘melting ice-cube’ narrative, and (we think) mainly index selling (it isn’t in the S&P500). A reminder that Versant owns CNBC and some other networks. With a $5.3bn market cap, roughly $2bn net debt, and $1.0-1.5bn free cash flow generation per year, the ‘bet’ here is that you will get your money back in 5-6 years. Imagine if FCF stabilizes. And Versant seems confident, launching a $1bn share buyback, almost 20% of the current market cap.
GungHo Online Entertainment $3765.JP has spent more than a decade living off Puzzle & Dragons, drifting into irrelevance. This could be over, and we might finally see some value unlock. Strategic Capital mounted a year-long activist campaign, forcing the company’s long-time boss out. So now we have a new CEO (with a big pay cut compared to the previous chief) and a TSR-linked incentive plan. But this is not the most interesting part. GungHo holds a stake in Gravity $GRVY (~59%). Worth more than GungHo’s entire enterprise value. Gravity itself is interesting, btw: profitable and with a net cash position equal to its market cap. Now let’s see if Strategic can get this thing over the finish line.
Bonhoeffer Capital Management @Bonhoeffer_KDS had a full case study on Private Bancorp of America $PBAM in its Q2 letter. PBAM is a California SME and SBA lender with heavy insider ownership, a best-in-class efficiency ratio, and low-cost banking-team acquisitions. The Fund's short-term target is $125 vs. today's ~$87.
Jana Partners is pushing Alkami Technology $ALKT to pursue a sale, arguing the fintech platform is materially undervalued after a sharp share price drop. At first sight, Alkami looks like your typical not-yet-profitable / disgusting share-based comp / a ton of open market sales company. That said, this thing actually has an interesting offering, which makes continued ~20% organic growth and high customer retention very probable over the next years. Also, we’ve seen funds getting more active in the market and taking significant stakes (ao, General Atlantic).
Synchrony Financial $SYF popped a new buyback to the tune of $6.5bn, roughly 24% of its market cap. This one has been and remains a true share cannibal. https://t.co/c4cbOsC4jk
Global Payments $GPN approved a $2.5bn buyback, including a $550m in accelerated purchases, and expects to return over $2bn to shareholders in 2026. The target is still $7.5b in capital returns through 2027. Nice. And what’s also nice is the msd topline growth and 150bps margin expansion guided for this year. c. 6.5x 2026 EV/EBITDA.
Coursera $COUR popped a $500m buyback, almost 40% of its market cap. They have the cash for it. The aim is to finally become profitable this year. Only look at it if you don't believe AI will kill the industry https://t.co/Gl1GBorWim
McIntyre Partnerships @Mc_Partnerships considers QuidelOrtho $QDEL a once-in-a-decade opportunity, as the company is reportedly selling its Point-of-Care division to deleverage and fund a share buyback. Note this was written before a potentially thesis-changing Q2. Previously flagged in KEDM Vol. 281.
Quite a few directors at Bath & Body Works $BBWI are buying the dip on poor earnings, with the shares dropping to multi-year lows. With negative sentiment pressuring the topline and margins and quite a bit of leverage, we’re not surprised to see this share price action. That said, the company is refocusing on key franchises, improving its product offering, and cutting costs heavily. It's too early to touch this one, but it's certainly interesting to keep on the watchlist on a potential inflection of the fundamentals (while the market continues to puke the shares).
Phoenician Capital is bullish on Halozyme Therapeutics $HALO. This company strongly focuses on licensing – and is doing that exceptionally well. Worth looking into. https://t.co/AD8KGejKA4
Ace River Capital @AceRiverCapital has high conviction in Vox Royalty $VOXR, a precious-metals royalty company with over 70 companies in its portfolio. VOXR is now the largest holding in both his personal portfolio and the fund's. VOXR is an old KEDM Lite flag. https://t.co/Nhi14DHSI7
Tiny, but perhaps interesting. Neuphoria $NEUP will be acquired by Scancell in an all share merger, resulting in a Nasdaq-listed Scancell (SCLT) alongside Scancell’s AIM listing. The current ratio implies $4.55 per NEUP share (~16% gross spread), plus a few CVRs tied to several milestones. partnered asset milestones. The deal is paired with up to $89m of new financing, plus $10m of Neuphoria cash, to fund Scancell’s Phase 3 iSCIB1+ lead melanoma trial through key readouts into 2029.
Long Cast Advisers is pitching Pro-Dex $PDEX, saying Zimmer’s mBos robot launch and the contingent value rights from its Monogram acquisition could drive an exceptional transformation in operating cash flow, justifying a substantially higher corporate value. https://t.co/eiJmjA9OKP
SEACOR Marine $SMHI has launched a strategic review, looking for value maximizing transactions – tough, clearly preferably a full sale. This comes after a ton of pressure from Pointillist (the largest shareholder), which argued SMHI’s market cap massively undervalues a fleet. Their thesis: the offshore cycle has fully recovered, but SMHI’s equity still trades at well below its $22/share broker appraised value. Seacor remains weighed down by high interest costs, G&A expenses, and subpar utilization, forcing asset sales to bolster liquidity. The premium PSV fleet alone should be worth ~$11/ share, with FSVs and Middle East liftboats pushing embedded value to $15/share+, vs. today’s price.
Uranium Royalty $UROY completed its (asset) deal with Sweetwater Royalties. This was quite the big deal for UR, not only in size ($1.9bn in EV and roughly $1.1bn in equity acquired, vs C$490m EV and C$600m market cap for UROY), but also because it will drastically reduce exposure to just one main commodity. The company recently listed on the Nasdaq and delisted from the TSX. In short, a transformative acquisition (trona is an interesting commodity) which should help the valuation. BB is not yet showing the correct financials, and coverage is picking up.
Optimist Fund @optimist_fund sees an opportunity in the buy-now-pay-later space and has conducted a deep dive into Affirm $AFRM. The fund says the buy-now-pay-later model is still lightly penetrated in US e-commerce and barely penetrated once bricks-and-mortar retail is included. Underwriting every transaction individually at the point of sale, with terms fixed upfront and no compounding interest or late fees, aligns the lender with the consumer in a way the revolving credit card model does not.
Stride’s $LRN CEO James Rhyu seems to be getting canned and will be replaced by old-timer Robert Knowling. Is the 71-year-old CEO the right person to run a company that’s struggling with tech implementations, or is he better suited to manage relations with school boards? To calm the markets, LRN pre-released earnings in line with expectations, but they failed to comment on enrollment figures, which spooked markets. This has been a volatile name. If they guide to a return to growth in Q1, this should re-rate from the 9x FCF it currently trades at. If for some reason enrollments decline because parents are holding a grudge after a year of tech issues, watch out below. Operating leverage is very strong here. Mr. Knowling’s contract includes a change-of-control provision.
