RiverRoadPartners on X
Some huge options trades (tech, naturally) today. Over a billion of premium paid and a lot of vega as well ($20M+). $AMD, $AAPL, $AVGO and $DELL. All January ‘28.
NYSE
DELL
13 stories
$368B Market cap · 2026-10-07
Some huge options trades (tech, naturally) today. Over a billion of premium paid and a lot of vega as well ($20M+). $AMD, $AAPL, $AVGO and $DELL. All January ‘28.
Adestella @AdestellaInvest holds Dell $DELL as its largest position, arguing that agentic AI token costs push routine inference back on-premise, onto Dell servers. “AI-optimized servers such as Dell’s become an important component of capex budgets – a trend we’ve already seen begin in recent quarters (see graphs). It’s a bit of a full circle moment. A decade ago, enterprises migrated everything to the cloud and software was king; now, companies are re-adding on-prem capability and hardware reigns supreme.”
Dell’s AI-server demand and Microchip’s data-center components lead updates on Cirrus Logic and STMicroelectronics, alongside a weekly…
Dell closed Q2 2027 with a $95 billion AI-server backlog after $60.9 billion in quarterly orders, targeting data-center and enterprise AI…
Dell’s Q2 revenue rose 57.7% to $47.0 billion and RPO tripled to $132 billion, but its stock trades at 32 times unlevered pretax free cash…
Dell’s Q2 FY27 AI server demand drove explosive growth but margins reversed sharply, putting cash conversion and the durability of elevated…
Seeing chips and infrastructure not moving after the $DELL print https://t.co/kTujCU7OWT
*DELL SEES FY ADJ EPS $25.25 TO $25.75, SAW $17.65 TO $18.15 The $DELL earnings / guide is absolutely wild FY27 EPS guided at $25.5 at the midpoint when the buyside expectations were at around $22 (street was only at $18.4). And to think Dell was at one point a consensus short on memory pricing exposure. Servers are booming. Holy DELL
SILC is the only pure play hardware pics and shovels for cybersecurity with $FTNT $NTSK $AVGO $CSCO $DELL etc, etc, as customers With a edge ai CustomNIC biz deals w/ hyperscalers just starting to grow Very uniquely positioned and favorable evaluation building upon multiple Qs of growth
Kimi K3 open source just made local frontier inference a different game 1.56TB download. 2.88T total / 104B active. Recommended: 64-chip supernode. Individual users are effectively locked out of running the new frontier open-source models at home. The only realistic path left is hoping Apple’s M7 Ultra with Thunderbolt-based RDMA can handle it — and that still depends on memory pricing from Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron or whether Washington lets Apple source from CXMT/YMTC. The bigger shift is on the enterprise side. If you run K3 on an NVL72 rack without stuffing the batch with enough concurrent users, your inference cost can easily run 5x+ versus an API provider that aggregates queries. Most companies will need an orchestration layer that either: - pools multiple user requests in real time, or - parks non-urgent demand for overnight runs to maximize hardware utilization. That reality makes GPU rental structurally more attractive than buying and operating the iron yourself. Which is an uncomfortable implication for $DELL’s enterprise GPU server business. Curious how many enterprises will actually choose to run models at this scale on-prem without sophisticated batching. The economics are no longer obvious.
If you're wondering just how unusual this year has been, here's yet another way to look at it. TWENTY THREE S&P 500 stocks have increased 100%+ this year. That's by far the highest number for at least the past FORTY years (maybe all-time). The stocks that have doubled have contributed roughly 5-6% of the overall 8% gain YTD for the S&P 500. It is highly unusual for an S&P 500 stock to double. In most years, there are at most a few stocks that double. Of course the last time we saw a surge in the number of S&P 500 stocks that doubled was in 1999..... History suggests this type of unrelenting bid will not be sustained. As you look at the list below, you'll notice the only non-AI/semis/data center stock in the S&P 500 that has doubled is $MRNA, which was down (-90%+) from its COVID19 highs. If you're looking for doubles or 10-baggers going forward, perhaps it's time to look outside of the data center trade... $SNDK $WDC $STX $MU $INTC $DELL $MRVL $FLEX $AMD $AMAT $LITE $GLW $LRCX $TER $ON $COHR $MRNA $FIX $HPE $GNRC $KLAC $Q
Quick thoughts on the $GOOG raise: 1) Management is old enough to remember when this stock traded at much lower multiples for YEARS, good time to raise capital and it's not that much relative to the market cap. 2) The demands of data center build out/token cost are even more insatiable than we thought (see $HPE, $DELL, or the $NVDA overnight news) 3) Profitability/cash flow could be headed lower in a meaningful way at some point in the not too distant future for the search business. This is the most important take away IMO. Someone explain to me how you take the greatest business model ever created in Search/Adwords where you have 90% share and replace it with LLM's/AEO, while somehow maintaining the same profitability. The structural economics are WORSE and market share is materially worse. Search traffic is DOWN in many categories and that will only get worse from here as consumers engage with #openAI, #claude, #gemini at higher rates. Honestly, I don't know why this isn't the primary narrative around $GOOG currently. I'm sure there are people that will have different perspectives on this, but ask around to people that rely on search. Volumes are down in many areas already.
Meanwhile disintermediation by OEMs going direct is accelerating. See recent commentary from partners $CSCO, $PANW $DELL, etc. $PLUS has zero discernable benefit from $NVDA and AI.
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