Marvell Projects $80 Billion In Revenue, But I'm Not Buying
Marvell targets $80 billion in FY2031 revenue after raising FY2028 guidance to $20 billion, but hyperscaler concentration and a stretched…
NASDAQ
MRVL
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$252B Market cap · 2026-10-06
Marvell targets $80 billion in FY2031 revenue after raising FY2028 guidance to $20 billion, but hyperscaler concentration and a stretched…
Marvell’s 2026 investor day draws a skeptical review of its optical connectivity, DSP and AI infrastructure claims, while crediting its…
Marvell’s AWS data-center revenue rose 46% in Q2 FY2027 as Qualcomm enters custom silicon and optical connectivity.
@SixSigmaCapital It’s kind of the standard AI stack, Chips than Memory than Optics. But a layer deeper is the question if inference is the biggest theme, than does everyone making their own custom silicon become more mainstream? In that case $MRVL probably is highest beta play there.
Qualcomm offers more valuation cushion than Marvell despite Marvell’s stronger AI revenue, as its Amazon partnership supports data-center…
Nvidia’s $2bn Marvell investment is not a simple endorsement $MRVL is one of the few real DSP alternatives to Broadcom. Nvidia lacked that lever — now it has influence. Marvell has also struggled in custom AI silicon and networking (Trainium 3 was a clear disappointment). The path of least resistance becomes designing compute that attaches to NVLink rather than building independent high-speed I/O. On scale-up, the field is largely NVLink vs Broadcom’s Ethernet camp. UALink was the alternative; Marvell was the key switch name. Once Marvell is aligned with Nvidia, UALink’s prospects as a true independent standard weaken. Three effects at once: 1) DSP influence, 2) custom ASICs pulled toward NVLink, and 3) a potential NVLink competitor blunted. We stayed on the sidelines. Not every Nvidia partnership is automatically bullish.
Various parts of the AI CAPEX trade ($MU, $SNDK, $COHR, $MRVL are down (-30%)-(-40%) in the past month, in what inning are we in for this sell-off?
If you're wondering just how unusual this year has been, here's yet another way to look at it. TWENTY THREE S&P 500 stocks have increased 100%+ this year. That's by far the highest number for at least the past FORTY years (maybe all-time). The stocks that have doubled have contributed roughly 5-6% of the overall 8% gain YTD for the S&P 500. It is highly unusual for an S&P 500 stock to double. In most years, there are at most a few stocks that double. Of course the last time we saw a surge in the number of S&P 500 stocks that doubled was in 1999..... History suggests this type of unrelenting bid will not be sustained. As you look at the list below, you'll notice the only non-AI/semis/data center stock in the S&P 500 that has doubled is $MRNA, which was down (-90%+) from its COVID19 highs. If you're looking for doubles or 10-baggers going forward, perhaps it's time to look outside of the data center trade... $SNDK $WDC $STX $MU $INTC $DELL $MRVL $FLEX $AMD $AMAT $LITE $GLW $LRCX $TER $ON $COHR $MRNA $FIX $HPE $GNRC $KLAC $Q
Coherent lite transceivers could intensify InP demand, favor Marvell, and require nonmonolithic transmitter designs; the note also flags an…
Marvell's Structera CXL cards make surplus DDR4 usable in memory pools, with dense SRAM IP helping mask latency amid DRAM shortages.
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