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S&P Global Inc.

SPGI

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$125B Market cap · 2026-10-15

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Fajasy on X

One of the world’s 10 biggest financial institutions signed a deal in 2024 to deploy software from Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA). Nubeva won’t name the bank, but its filings leave a trail. The April 2024 release on the deal said revenue from the first 12 months “is not expected to be material,” and no press release or filing has updated the deal since. Nubeva reports revenue by country, and in FY2026, U.K. revenue was $204,055, the same figure as the license line. Nubeva also discloses what share of revenue its largest customers make up. In both of the last two years, U.K. revenue matched one customer’s share almost exactly. In FY2026, U.K. revenue was 40.8% of the total ($204,055 / $500,586), and the two largest customers were 41% each. In FY2025, U.K. revenue was 36.6% ($193,986 / $530,616), and the second-largest customer was 37%. One of the two 41% customers lines up with the support and maintenance line, 41.1% of FY2026 revenue ($205,712 / $500,586), which the last customer of Nubeva’s old TLS (web-traffic decryption) product pays. That means the license revenue, the U.K. revenue, and the remaining 41% customer all appear to be the same account. The FY2025 statements show the 37% customer at 0% of FY2024 revenue, so it started paying in FY2025, the first full fiscal year after the bank deal. In a June 2024 video, CEO Randy Chou said the bank doesn’t want anyone to know it uses Nubeva. If the U.K. customer is the bank, HSBC $HSBC is the likeliest candidate. It’s based in London, and at eighth by assets, it’s the only U.K.-headquartered bank in S&P Global $SPGI’s top 10. Then there’s Netskope $NTSK. The company that bought Nubeva’s key-capture patents runs a public page titled “Netskope + HSBC” that pitches its platform to the bank. It’s a sales page, with a “Meet with your Netskope team” button and a named Netskope sales rep, and it pitches Netskope against a “Bluecoat / Zscaler hybrid approach,” which reads like HSBC’s current setup. It also shows Netskope courting HSBC, not HSBC buying from Netskope, and nothing on the page mentions Nubeva or ransomware. If the bank is HSBC, Netskope, which owns the key-capture patents Nubeva sold, is already pitching Nubeva’s biggest license customer. None of this proves the bank is HSBC. But in the latest quarter (February-April 2026), instead of growing, revenue from the U.K. customer fell ~70% (vs. a 19% rise in the same quarter a year earlier). License revenue was $18,796 ($204,055 for the year minus $185,259 through January), vs. the ~$62K/quarter it averaged in the first three quarters. The FY2026 MD&A doesn’t say whether the license customer renewed. If it didn’t, Nubeva likely lost the bank (possibly HSBC) behind 41% of its FY2026 revenue. The six-month report due by December 30, 2026 will show whether license revenue came back.

S&P Global ($SPGI) Deep Dive

S&P Global has fallen about 20% in 2026 as AI disruption fears test the durability of its ratings, indices and financial-data franchises.

SPGI $125B
Jimmy's Journal
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

It is good to see the market recognizing that some of these SaaS companies like $ADBE, $NAVN, $ADSK and $CRM were oversold. My updated list of 62 software companies with insider buying can be found here in a tool that was built using Claude: https://t.co/ov9dxXgBid Here is some of what I wrote about the data in our July mid-month update a couple of week ago: "Industries in crisis provide fantastic opportunities if you are willing to wait patiently for some of the dust to settle and don’t mind temporary drawdowns as it is nearly impossible to pick bottoms. Earlier this year I started compiling a list of software and software-adjacent companies that were seeing insider buying after a massive drop in the price of their stock. I covered why this was important and included a list of 11 companies with insider buying in my article Where Are The Software Insiders? in February. Software-adjacent Companies What do I mean by “software-adjacent” companies? These are companies that have also seen their stock prices decline because of the perceived threat of AI to their business models. The list includes data providers like S&P Global $SPGI, MSCI $MSCI, and Morningstar $MORN. It includes e-commerce marketplaces like ThredUp $TDUP as well as the Latin America focused juggernaut MercadoLibre $MELI. It includes FinTech companies like SoFi $SOFI, PicS $PICS, PagSeguro Digital $PAGS, and StoneCo $STNE. I also decided to include cybersecurity companies like Palo Alto Networks $PANW and Gen Digital $GEN. Sixty Two Companies With Insider Buying The full list included 72 companies but I decided to get rid of five with a market cap below $500 million and another five whose gross margin was below 40%. The insider data is clean as a whistle because I reviewed every filing, read the footnotes and even adjusted the price of one purchase (Marqeta) to account for a reverse split. The buyback data specified in the Double Dipper column should also be good as I did several spot checks against 10Q and 10K filings. The rest of the data including valuation ratios and company metrics come from our data provider (FMP) and could have some issues. Several of these companies are foreign issuers (EPS reported in Brazilian reals but price reported in U.S. dollars), some went public within the last year and some ratios will be impacted by one-time items or growth from a tiny base. We have covered 18 of these companies in InsideArbitrage articles or newsletters"

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