kab60 on X
IF YOU ALLOCATE CAPITAL PROCYCLICALLY, YOU SHOULDN'T RUN A YUUUUGELY CYCLICAL BUSINESS $BLDR - Can anyone name a good (counter-cyclical) mngmt team that isn't named Lundin? https://t.co/yHn2kFBkuP
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kab60
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
kab60 on X
@pradeeepk I think you wait until it shows up (even more!) in $BLDR's numbers and markets suddenly start worrying about leverage. Investores don't care about balance sheets until it's suddenly the only thing they care about, and that's when stuff really crash.
kab60 on X
One of these don't act like the others. $FIS should fix their industry classification. But I guess it's a nice hedge to holding $CSU.🤪 https://t.co/ffxHQNx8jc
kab60 on X
I wonder how much Karp is paying him. $AIG must be a massive account, and with Palantir trading at a quadzillion x rev, Zaffino must've created a ton of value for Karp. Zaffino stepping down as CEO of $AIG to be 'head of financial services', but I bet the pay is better?
kab60 on X
Zaffino always seemed completely Palantir-pilled. Now we know why. Wonder if $AIG might get their expenses in order if new management (although handpicked by Zaffino...) take it easy with all their Palantir consultants https://t.co/bGgocKEd9v
kab60 on X
Hey fuckers, there's a better option around, and you can have it for cheap $GPN https://t.co/Ao4JowHEsG
kab60 on X
Speaking of which, $AAP APPsolutely shat the bed (again... And again... And again). CEO speaks a good game, seems to have made the right (big) moves on logistics side, yet... https://t.co/60Z4Tv8OCK
kab60 on X
@BillRoman15 It's not that I'm confident $GPN has a structurally better merchant business. But with Genius, they seem to have a solid offering and perhaps more importantly, post TSYS/Worldpay, they have a focused business, whereas Fiserv will take long to clean up, which will hurt execution
kab60 on X
@BillRoman15 I'm looking at '27 numbers, which gives $FIS and $GPN a full year of owning TSYS+Worldpay. But whatever metric I look at, fwd P/E, FCF or sales looks ballpark similar for the 3. Which honestly makes it a little hard for me to even own $GPN after the pop over buying more $FIS.
kab60 on X
@BillRoman15 So my point is and has been for a while that I don't get why people would go with a massive turnaround in Fiserv, when you can get the same exposure but better fundamentals, mngmt with a track record (can debate if good or bad!) with $GPN + $FIS AND withot paying up
kab60 on X
@Adam17609412325 @BillRoman15 Earnings quality legit? Say what? Doing $40/share isn't a high hurdle for $GPI to clear next year (even if they stumbled on the used car side in Q2 and might have a bit of a rebranding headwind in H2 '26).
kab60 on X
@THESAVAGEJOHNSO It's the biggest shitco in a sector full of shitcos. Can get the same exposure with $GPN + $FIS at about the same price, but they already focused their businesses, grow MSD and in a much better spot. $FISV can't hold on to neither execs nor customers, why bother
kab60 on X
@BillRoman15 Not sure I follow... I also own $GPN and thinks it is great value despite a nice pop...
kab60 on X
$JKHY: "We delivered a record 58 competitive core wins for the year, including 14 institutions with more than $1B in assets, and both fourth-quarter and full-year non-GAAP revenue reached new highs." WONDER WHO THEY WON THOSE FROM $FISV https://t.co/60Z4Tv8OCK
kab60 on X
The way mkt values $FIS vs $JKHY is as if it's $AAP vs. $ORLY / $AZO. Wait to see what happens when mkt realizes it's a StiCKY, mIsSiOn CriTiCaL sYStEm oF reCoRD cOmPounDiNG FCF/SHARE > 15%!!! #NEVERSELL
kab60 on X
@BillRoman15 Yes, I broadly agree. $ABG and $LAD went big on M&A, now switched to buybacks. $GPI was more flexible, now a pretty sizeable deal. $AN and $SAH both with failed used dealership investments. As for $AN, you mean buying CIG Financial to launch their own DFC initiative?
kab60 on X
@BillRoman15 It looks rich vs. the stock today, but I think $GPI mngmt has done a great job clustering stores and balancing M&A with buybacks. Don't agree on empire building - they divested stores worth almost 400m in H1.
kab60 on X
@B_Archibald Also, portfolio composition matter. Not saying it's a real hedge, but I own a lot of $IPCO (O&G co), which I like independently, but it also will do well in scenarios that hurt dealerships. Something like $FFH would fit in nicely as well imo (very levered to higher rates).
kab60 on X
@B_Archibald I think that's a personal thing. I don't mind having 25-30% in a single sector, so I'm >20% in $GPI and $ABG currently. I find them easy to average down into given how resilient they are + few Q's around terminal value (imo), but again, miles vary (widely).
kab60 on X
I'm fishing but also tend to be early! At 6x earnings for the best store footprint+brand mix, $GPI looks dirt cheap to me. As does $ABG after change of CEO and change in capital allocation. $PAG launching a take-private & $LAD & $ABG hitting buybacks suggest ok outlook. https://t.co/nKPTwKHuDY
kab60 on X
Anyone seen any transcripts from JPM Automotive? $GPI $ABG or other dealership notes?
kab60 on X
@HugoManenti Hah! Thinking I've got any chips left! But also, imagine selling $AMZN after it went down 95% and then ripped 20% higher in '01! Nah man, tHeSe aRe sEcuLAR coMpoUndERS searching for a narrative! #neversell
kab60 on X
WHEN $FIS $GPN $FISV NO LONGER LEGACY, OVERLEVERED SHITCOS BUT 'POTENTIAL AI BENEFICIARIES' - TODAY! https://t.co/S5ilTTuxXS https://t.co/4DA9DwRteE
kab60 on X
If PE wants to own SW, go get $FIS. Sticky as fuck, could cut employees in half and shit is already levered to the tits and ready to go!!
