Myles on X
For basically the first time in my history I have positive beta to $BTC while it's rallying and it feels nice.
X
Myles
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
Myles on X
$ASAN down 12% on weak guidance. This earnings season has sucked so gotta enjoy my wins. https://t.co/wHULS7a1xW
Myles on X
I'm long a bit of $META. The ads business is just so absurdly good right now. At current valuation I'm willing to put up with the AI infra exposure that I'm not super excited about.
Myles on X
@DeepSailCapital $ASAN has been caught up in the software bounce despite being a pretty obvious AI loser and having none of the qualities that make the other software companies good.
Myles on X
In case you're wondering, yes I am one of the people stuck on the other side of this stupid Markiplier $GPRO short squeeze.
Myles on X
A fun trade I've had in is arbing convertible preferreds. Long $PCGPRX short $PCG, long $QXOPRB short $QXO. Trading below the convertible price while pocketing a nice dividend with cheap financing.
Myles on X
$CWST seems like a pretty straightforward short, anything I'm missing? Trades at around 55x underlying earnings despite high single digit organic growth. Acquisition track record is decent but not spectacular. FCF/share has CAGR'd at only 10% over the last decade. Seems expensive
Myles on X
@ArgonathCapital Yeah the problem is crowd strike has a really narrative behind it. $ASAN is my largest single stock short atm.
Myles on X
$IGV up 7% today. My short book (which as of the last couple weeks has become reasonably software heavy) is in painnnn. Hate that these things all just trade as a basket now.
Myles on X
A lot of software stocks looking like juicy shorts again after this bounce. $XRO.ax makes no sense to my mind at the current valuation. $ASAN up 40% in 3 months despite being unprofitable and a likely AI victim. $BL is super expensive still for low growth. To name a few.
Myles on X
The $EUR.ax merger arb has a huge spread and is a pain in the ass to hedge. An interesting idea you can do here is buy October or November $7.5 puts, which hedge you for a small return for $CRML below $7.5, but still leave solid upside if it squeezes (which I think it might to
Myles on X
@ShmuelLon I actually don't think $PFF is the best expression of this trade, I'm just using it here cause it's got a long track record. But I've been going through the securities in stuff like $PGC and $PGF and I think as a basket they're very attractive.
Myles on X
Heres a portfolio that's 80% $SPY, $70% $TLT, -70% $PFF, 20% $GLD. Similar return with way lower volatility. Obviously this is just backwards looking, but there are structural reasons why this kind of mix works (Preferred stocks suck, most of the alpha is there). https://t.co/pfsyWJG2f2
Myles on X
My largest short is $PFFD a preferred ETF, but I'm switching the exposure to $PGF. Even though it's 2% borrow vs 1% for PFFD, PFFD has 25% exposure to mandatory convertibles that essentially act as equity. Meanwhile PGF is full of low yield, perpetual, callable preferreds, which
Myles on X
@taobanker This is reasonable. I guess the counter would be that current business momentum is much stronger than at least $LULU, I haven't looked at Gap or BBW
Myles on X
@BeeliCapital I've been short it a bit since the $XLP runup earlier this year.
Myles on X
@Pray4Equity Growth stuff like this where there's no valuation bottom I set a hard 5% max rule. $RDDT started there and is now at 4.
Myles on X
@Cameron29620977 @FriendlyCapMgmt Meridian holdings used to be Golden Matrix $GMGI. They changed their name after acquiring Meridianbet. The old company was a scam, but now the company is focused around Meridianbet and seems more legit and at a reasonable valuation. But I'm still skeptical due to the history.
Myles on X
@FriendlyCapMgmt Am short both. Though I feel like they were a bit more mainstream especially $EOSE. I'd put stuff like $ABXX, $MRDN, $FNGR into the bucket.
Myles on X
I forgot $ENVX existed. Hilarious, CEO is jumping ship. Wish I shorted more. I need to find more of these tier 2 meme stocks, I feel like they are way better shorts than your mainstream stuff. Scams that have weird niche followings but haven't hit the mainstream.
Myles on X
$EUR.ax $CRML merger recut in whoop. Still looks attractive here at a 17% spread with a clearly very motivated buyer and a reasonably short timeline. Easily hedgable with 10% borrow.
Myles on X
accounting I’ve seen in a while. $CURI is now one of my largest single-stock shorts. @StockJabber @BreakoutPoint
Myles on X
The Curious Accounting of CuriosityStream $CURI jumped 40% after reporting blowout Q2 earnings and 48% licensing growth. The 10-Q released the next day tells a very different story. Of $14m licensing revenue, $5.3m was non-cash content swaps and $8.5m https://t.co/8ixiiAgb5t
