[Market Memo] Qualcomm/Amazon, Apple C2 Modem, Credo uLED 30M Claim, Cerebras I/O Conspiracy Theory
Qualcomm's Amazon coherent-lite DSP work may carry lower margins as Apple’s C2 modem cuts Qualcomm’s iPhone share; Credo’s 30-meter uLED…
Substack
Irrational Analysis
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
Cerebras Supernova 2026: Irrational Recap
Cerebras’ three-wafer Supernova system doubles I/O and clock speed, improving latency and parametric yield, but hardware gross-margin…
Intel CPO Group is Alive? + Very Interesting NVDA/LITE/AEVA Bonus Papers
Intel's silicon photonics CPO work shows precise 16-wavelength lasers but suffers SOA four-wave-mixing noise and weaker link performance…
Coherent Q4 FY26 Earnings
Coherent’s Q4 FY26 results prompt claims that poor 6-inch InP laser yields are limiting margins versus Lumentum in co-packaged optics.
Lumentum Q4 FY26 Earnings
Lumentum’s CW lasers offer wider mode-hop-free operating ranges for co-packaged optics, supporting premium pricing and 80–90%…
CBRS Update, WOLF/NVTS Lawsuit, HBF Spec Analysis, Aeva WTF, Taalas/AMD, AAOI, TSEM, uLED Jihad
Cerebras’s upcoming WSE 3.5 targets power delivery and clock speeds; the analysis argues parametric yield, not defect routing, is key to…
Preview of a new war between Apple and Qualcomm
Apple is accelerating its Qualcomm modem design-out before the April 2027 licensing expiry, threatening Qualcomm's high-margin handset…
Stranded Indium-Phosphide
Aeva’s high-power InP SOA design could supply NPO/CPO optical modules at roughly 17% gross margins, versus 51% for eight discrete DFB…
Practical Semiconductor Optical Amplifiers (SOA)
Semiconductor optical amplifiers offer compact, low-cost gain for LiDAR, long-haul links and ultra-high-power co-packaged optics, trading…
July NPO/CPO Update: Stupidity Singularity
Nvidia shifted its optical interconnect plan from TSMC CPO to Tower Semiconductor NPO, increasing laser requirements that favor Lumentum…
The King Bleeds, Long Live The King
Nvidia's Groq deal responded to OpenAI's Cerebras inference partnership, preserving its AI-chip lead through supply-chain control and rapid…
[Market Memo] Hot Summer Topics
Applied Materials’ DRAM and CPO claims face scrutiny, while high-bandwidth flash needs SLC NAND and a solution for base-die heat.
Cerebras June 2026 Earnings
Cerebras faces shareholder criticism over $700,000 to $850,000 WSE-3 rack pricing, alleged packaging-yield losses and SRAM-based KV-cache…
Coherent Lite Transceivers + AMD CPU Opportunity
Coherent lite transceivers could intensify InP demand, favor Marvell, and require nonmonolithic transmitter designs; the note also flags an…
What's going on with Marvell?
Marvell's Structera CXL cards make surplus DDR4 usable in memory pools, with dense SRAM IP helping mask latency amid DRAM shortages.
HBM: High-Bandwidth Mistake
HBM’s economic, thermal and power costs will drive a 90% volume drop from peak within 7-10 years, while DRAM stocks remain cyclical.
