Perpetual Futures and CME: What the Early Data Shows
CME perpetual-futures activity is tested against more than 240,000 CFTC data points on open interest and dealer positioning.
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First Strike Research
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
CME's Stock Is Cheap for the Wrong Reason
CME Group trades at 21.7 times trailing earnings versus a 25.1 times 12-month average, despite near-record futures volume and 94%…
Blackstone's Subs - Inside the Jersey Mike's IPO.
Jersey Mike’s IPO filing shows 47% adjusted EBITDA margin after Blackstone cut founder spending, ad subsidies and Area Director fees, while…
What CrowdStrike Shareholders Are Really Funding
CrowdStrike’s $318 million quarterly stock compensation and payroll taxes equaled 23% of revenue, diluting shareholders while non-GAAP…
Will the real AI company please stand up?
Entravision’s Smadex and Adwake mobile ad platform generated $154 million in Q1 2026 revenue, up 204% year over year, using proprietary…
Apple Earnings Mentions Contracts: Our Analysis
Apple’s Kalshi earnings-call contracts price mentions of “foldable” and “glasses,” while its 24-year transcript record indicates management…
Mention Market Analysis: Truist Financial
Truist Financial’s April 17 call is forecast to feature “tailwind” in NIM and asset-repricing discussions, with the 51-cent Kalshi contract…
It Pays to be a Winner: Our ML model and social research layer just went 14-for-16 on Nike’s Q3 call. (Kalshi, Mentions)
First Strike Research’s ML and social-sentiment system correctly called 14 of 16 Nike Q3 Kalshi contracts, reporting 208¢ net P&L.
Nike Earnings Mentions Contracts: Our Analysis, and Fair Value Pricing Model.
First Strike prices Nike’s Q3 “Express Lane” mention at 20-25¢ versus Kalshi’s 66¢, citing the retired Mark Parker-era supply-chain program…
We Dramatically Improved our Machine Learning Model to Price Kalshi Earnings Contracts. It Went 11/13.
A two-layer machine-learning model correctly called 11 of 13 CrowdStrike earnings-word contracts on Kalshi, using historical transcripts…
Mispriced Domino’s Mention Contract: Kalshi Traders Haven’t Ordered This Yet!
Domino’s Q4 2025 Kalshi contract prices “craveable” at 37%, while First Strike’s transcript model assigns 68.4% before social-sentiment…
After Trade Review, and Earnings Mention Market Thoughts
SNAP Family Center was omitted from Snap’s earnings call, validating a 50-cent Kalshi NO contract and informing a machine-learning model…
Mispriced Kalshi Contract: Snapchat Family Center
Kalshi’s 87% odds of “Family Center” on Snap’s earnings call far exceed its 2.9% historical mention rate and a 15–20% street-adjusted…
CrowdStrike: A Glass DeathStar during SaaSmageddon | Short Thesis
CrowdStrike faces a renewal cliff after its July 2024 outage, with Microsoft Defender bundling, litigation, SEC and DOJ scrutiny, and a…
How We Made 233% Trading a Starbucks Condiment Bar
A Kalshi contract on whether Starbucks would mention “condiment bar” on its earnings call rose from 30 cents to $1 after the term went…
Mispriced Kalshi Contract: Condiment Bar
Kalshi’s 76% contract price for Starbucks saying “condiment bar” on its next earnings call exceeds a transcript-based estimate of 31.6%.
