NASDAQ
TSLA
52 stories
$1.5T Market cap · 2026-11-04
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Elon is the perfect example though, on what you should do to dispute the BS If there’s a false WSJ report or X post on $TSLA or $SPCX… Even if it’s something as little as space datacenters won’t work, he just calls it out real time. I’m not saying every industry executive should do this, but at least hire a representative to defend against misleading narratives
Little rant, but to show you how rampant deleveraging has become: - $CIFR is worth 44% LESS than when they announced their initial $GOOGL / $AMZN colo deals. - $AAOI is now ~ the same price BEFORE they secured major hyperscaler orders, raised $1.6B for capacity expansion and gave their suprising initial -> $378M+ projection -> ~$471M revenue forecast. - $ESMT ($2B MC) is the perfect example representing the memory sector. B-BUT AI NAMES ARE NOT PROFITABLE??? Q3 Earnings: $526.2M gross profit, $330M net income. To give you a comparison of what that looks like, the net income of $CRWD ($251B MC) was literally $5.3M. $NOW ($113B MC) was $277M. $TSLA ($1.5T) was $787M. Different industries/durability, but if we care about what's actually hitting the balance sheet: ESMT is sitting on ~$937M in net assets ($740M net cash, $278M inventory, etc), so EV goes down to $1.2B ish. Annualized P/E: 1.6x... People keep saying "Peak Earnings", "Cyclical", "no moat" but who in the world would want to build an old ass DDR2 line + fab and qualify it? From ESMT commentary, we'll likely see ASP hikes Q4 to make up for potential consumer demand dropping. And further supply tightening with Samsung/Micron discontinuing DDR2/DDR3 lines. Winbond was leaving DDR2 lines to pursue higher end memory. People keep saying China, but even Gigadevice was leaving DDR3 to pursue higher end memory. "DDR3's share of our DRAM revenue will continue to decline until we eventually stop selling DDR3 products."Nanya discontinued DDR2 lines few days ago. This is while majority of ESMT revenue comes from DDR2/DDR3. In ~3 quarters of constant earnings, ESMT would have more assets than their entire MC. Who is going to stop buying $40 DLink cameras if their $3 memory cost goes to $3.5? $MU / Samsung / $SKHY / $SNDK share similar parallels where durability is contractually enforced via take/pay LTAs with price floors. But markets are pretending that it just won't happen, despite Samsung already being the most profitable company in the world. Markets should care about how much FCF is actually hitting the balance sheets, but are just indiscriminately selling off everything now. But continue rotating capital into 47x P/E companies like Walmart or 180x forward P/E names like $CRWD.
Elon Musk is the biggest loser in the elections tonight. TIME to add to our profitable short positions in $SPCX and $TSLA. The speed of the coming collapse will be something to behold. And yes, AI is the biggest misallocation of capital in history. The world has never seen such malinvestment at scale. BURN IT ALL DOWN. @Ross__Hendricks @GordonJohnson19 @JackFarley96 @biancoresearch @JG_Nuke @edzitron @GaryMarcus @MacrostrategyP @MichaelMOTTCM @LukeGromen @DarioCpx
I reckon a portfolio of short $WMT, $KO (safety trade), $TSLA, $SPCX, $DJT, $UMAC, $GEO (Trump trade) long $SPY probably beats most things over the next 3 months.
@valuedrift Agree, shorted a bunch of trump associated stuff overnight, especially $TSLA
The trade here is short Trump associated stocks buy the dip on everything else. $TSLA only down 1.8% overnight when Q's are down 1.6% is silly. Am I just libbing out?
and here is a sneak preview of price action following a $SPCX $TSLA merger announcement
Tesla and SpaceX are weighing an all-stock merger or holding-company structure, with $302.8 billion in 2027 revenue projections but a…
Passage Research I've added a sizeable chunk to my $TSLA short as a midterms bet here. Everyone knows the overvaluation, but it's rebounded aggressively, and I just think if it's a blue wave Musk's businesses are probably in for a lot of pain and the market will recognise that. Will reduce after
@dstressedcos @WNYG00001 Isn’t he trying to buy $TSLA with $SPCX shares?
Group 1 Automotive trades at 5.5 times earnings as aging gasoline vehicles and EV repairs sustain service profits; insiders bought while…
Not actively. I've been pointing out issues with Neocloud/Colo financing since 2025 from $SLNH to $CRWV debt interest. And maintain my opinion only a few neoclouds would survive in a few years, given they build enough of a moat to differentiate themselves against hyperscalers. So I don't think Elon's comments are completely wrong about Neoclouds, but there's nuances. One example was $NBIS SOFR + 2.75% $3.5B facility with Citibank, which actually has better rates than GPU financing from $2T+ companies. So kinda hard to say neocloud financing has "entirely shut off" since this Citibank facility was announced 3D ago I'm not arguing the merits of Elon's claims here. There's some truth to them, even if they're framed in extremes. I'm happy to hear his opinion on the direction of the industry... but if they're mainly amplifying concerns about competitor downfall (which benefits $SPCX + $TSLA) There's some cause for concern about how healthy that is to the town square dynamic Elon originally envisioned with X.
I've always defended X as the only platform to be on for financial discourse. But it's getting harder to when the owner constantly amplifies narratives of collapse… of companies whose interests conflict with his own at $SPCX or $TSLA. Would people be comfortable if $NVDA Jensen Huang owned $META? And then the timelines were dominated by his amplified narratives of $AVGO failing? I can't see how that would be healthy for grassroots discussion.
@Notorious_B0b My take on Elon is that I won’t short him and I won’t go long I’ve occasionally buy puts in $TSLA and gotten zeros or multibaggers I try not to lose my mind with Elon’s company
CoreWeave’s rising debt yields and fading confidence in AI data-center economics frame a weekly review of Meta, Tesla, SpaceX, Netflix,…
Tesla’s Q3 revenue was flat at $28.0 billion, while operating income fell 56% as R&D spending on AI rose 69%; SpaceX merger discussions are…
Tesla’s growth problem joins a muted market response to early earnings reports.
Lesson learned from years shorting $TSLA on and off: Elon is the most fantastical forecaster of the future, almost always overpromising and underdelivering, but he’s so optimistic that executing on half of what he thinks is possible is still way beyond a normal person
SpaceX and Tesla boards are exploring potential merger $TSLA $SPCX
@peachteadrink37 No denying what he has accomplished with $TSLA and that is referenced in the tweet. Mary Barra had to do it while being burdened with legacy assets and culture. She didn't have access to capital the way Elon did through a large number of secondary offerings of Tesla.
Mary Barra continues to show that she is the GOAT of the automotive industry. Despite the big pullback in $GM stock today, over the last year: Ford is essentially flat Rivian $RIVN is down 5% Tesla $TSLA is down 16% Stellantis is down a whopping 60% GM is up more than 30% Pulling back the curtain 10 years, Ford generated no returns (not taking dividends into account) and Stellantis lost a third of its value. GM is up 139% over the last 10 years. Barra took on the role of CEO in January 2014 after being with the company since 1980. Obviously the ten year return pales in comparison to the returns of Tesla or the NASDAQ over that time but she has continued to do a great job in a challenging industry that has undergone tremendous change since Tesla transformed the landscape.
@Darktionary @Jason Anyone whose investment advisor ever shorted $TSLA is wrong about everything and also evil
When Tesla ($TSLA) reports on Wednesday 21 Oct, what we want to hear on Optimus is evidence that it works reliably in real jobs. We hold Tesla as a long-term physical-AI position through Optimus and Cybercab, and we keep it small. In our view, an affordable, capable Optimus could become an enormous product. Demonstrations alone do not show it is ready for sustained use in real working environments. On the call, we will be listening for: 1. Reliability in real work 2. Progress on affordability 3. Commercialization timing, which could take longer than investors expect Evidence on those three points would change our sizing. If they are proven, we could consider a weight above 2% over time.
I’ve spent a few days thinking about the Tesla Roadster reveal and landed somewhere I haven’t seen much discussion. I’m neither a Tesla fanboy nor a Tesla hater. And I couldn’t care less whether what we saw technically qualifies as a flying car. Three takeaways: (1) The risk of that live demonstration going horribly wrong was real. Almost no CEO would willingly expose their company to that kind of public humiliation for a product with so little financial upside. Elon did. (2) That willingness to attempt the seemingly impossible is what makes Tesla special. It’s also arguably Elon’s greatest contribution to America. He’s helped bring back something we’ve lost. The American spirit of chasing big scary ideas that most people think are impossible. That mindset is spreading across a new generation of founders and its long term impact on America’s future could dwarf anything Tesla ever sells. I think this is deeply underappreciated. (3) Can we just acknowledge how insanely cool that moment was? We’ve reached a strange place culturally where even extraordinary feats of human ingenuity immediately become arguments about why they don’t count. Not everything needs to be a debate. Sometimes we should just be able to stand back together and marvel at what humans are capable of. I’ve been both bullish and critical of Tesla’s ambitions over the years. But watching Elon and his team push the boundaries of what’s possible reminds me why I’m glad we have him. Whether the Roadster ever makes Tesla a dollar or impacts $TSLA stock price is almost beside the point. We need more people willing to risk failure in pursuit of things the rest of us think are impossible. Because when they succeed we all win.
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