Lee Roach on X
Me buying $HOG at $18 because Wall Street said it was going to zero. https://t.co/nGdqlBiwY2
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Me buying $HOG at $18 because Wall Street said it was going to zero. https://t.co/nGdqlBiwY2
Two U.S. protein-snacking companies lost $6 billion in market value as impairments, inventory growth and margin pressure test whether the…
@simcity31 $ORR has been a great investment and I'm happy with it. I just don't think any investment should be sized as large as I sized it. https://t.co/HnwLbpAPID
@RodrigoLezama7 @ALDeAng08 @Mike10947310 @MicrocapDr Yeah, liquidity excuse is bogus. Being right fixes everything. Big caps have fallen 50% in one day on earnings misses. Remember when illiquid $MUEL was $45 with a P/E of 4x in 2024. Pessimists said it wouldn’t get much higher. P/E got as high as 15x as the stock went to $500.
@steven_finch Pretty much everything I own has revenues declining. People pissed and moaned when I bought $HOG because it was "dying"
Vistance Networks' $5 distribution leaves year-end 2026 cash and receivables near 60% of market value, while the core trades at 2.75x EV/EBITDA.
Owning timber REITs here seems like a no brainer. $RYN has an enterprise value of $7.4 billion. They own four million acres. You are buying this for $1,817 per acre. That is dirt cheap. Find me anywhere else you can own a large swath of land for $1,817 per acre. You can’t! The public market will punish RYN for owning a large amount of land. Lower valuation and will call it a value trap. But imagine the optionality of owning this large amount of land. Texas Pacific Land owned a large amount of land and look what happened to their stock price. One of the best performers ever. I’ve done well owning land banks. This one pays a fat dividend. Rare. Market is asleep at the wheel with their pants down and drooling.
Well looks like I’m going to get another chance to buy PayPal $PYPL as the market losses its entire ass because the buy out fell through. Back of envelope math here is $42.6 billion EV on $6 billion of free cash flow is a 14% free cash flow yield. Not bad! Growth hogs will piss their pants and cry about how there’s little growth.
@taobanker $INTR at 1.2x book 5.5x '27 earnings with a 16% ROE growing at 20% a year probably qualifies. But yes, $BLX is incredible and I still kick myself for selling most of my position at $25 after buying at $15. Grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory there.
It’s happening… Seller’s remorse is starting to set in for trigger-happy $KLNG shareholders. I have a feeling the same will happen to $SIF panic sellers who blindly accepted “horrendous” GAAP EPS as true earnings power. Lesson 👉 Read the transcripts & do your own math. https://t.co/0u7pxLVft4
@Goldridge_Cap $KWY Great questions. If they continue to have quarters like the most recent, they will deserve a 20x multiple. If they reinvest cash flows and can grow at 15-20% per year, a 20x multiple seems reasonable. That is why the next 4-6 quarters will be so valuable to review.
$XGN bio pharma revenue increased 40% yy in Q2 hitting a quarterly record. What we also love is that the stock trades for 2.5x sales vs a comp set at 10.3x. This is in advance of launching testing for Myositis which is another connective-tissue disorder that requires early diagnosis to treat and prevent serious organ damage. Rheumatologists have requested a calibrated Myositis test w/ 15x more frequency than any other test because the condition is so critical to rule out. Only $XGN will offer this and its coming in the 1H of 2027, maybe Q1 and the additional cost of launch are already baked into the cake.
@OtterMarket @gatorcapital $tfsl is just under a billion when you exclude the phantom shares. I've owned it a long time and very few people care about it either. That said, this NY one is even more obscure
New writeup on the 'Stack. MegaChips (TYO 6875). After-tax stake in $SITM in the U.S. + NCAV is ¥19,842 vs ¥11,250 stock price. Operating biz is capital light and management aims for ¥10bn in OP in FY30. There's other financial assets too. mcap: ¥158.3 billion ($1 bn USD) https://t.co/gPhHG8P5nY
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Not bad earnings at $MCCK. Gold book took a mark to market loss. But core business is kicking at. Revenues up 8.9%. Gross margins expanding. Customer deposits and deferred revenue up 33%. Back out all the cash and gold and this is trading at a dirt cheap multiple.
$MRX Q2: +39% revenue growth, 17% PAT margin (cont ops), 37% ROE, ~$2 EPS growing 100%+, mgt guiding further strong growth... Still 8.5x annualised PE https://t.co/ihSaFMMBLO
@shortbus_ace @akeemcap @QuietProsperity $CAAP is 6x EV/EBITDA and no Mexico. But half of EBITDA is from Argentina, so that's its own can of worms (albeit the Argy fees are charged at a fixed USD rate not Peso)
Good numbers from Broadridge $BR. Stock was stupid cheap a few weeks ago, hit 14x trailing eps for a capital light monopoly
$TAIT Taitron is a great example of why I will buy something even when it is tiny, and it is. Deregistration drove share price $2.50 to $1.00 to $1.20 range. Book was $2.50 per sh. Net cash $1.50 per sh. Real estate of $1.50 per share. Yield 14%. Earnings were temporarily affected by tariffs. Announced dividend increase today.
@taobanker I half heartedly pitched $jd the week it bottomed with an apology attached to it for buying such a hated stock. Sure enough straight up