Asif Suria on X
51% jump after hours in Liquidia $LQDA on this news. https://t.co/fyGLZzOZsI https://t.co/OWdm3p4xpL
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Asif Suria
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
Asif Suria on X
@GuptaRK22 Congratulations Ravi! There is so much potential you can unlock at Bumble $BMBL
Asif Suria on X
@RelativalueMike @compound248 For a situation where the fundamentals line up along with a potential deal situation, I like Waystar $WAY. We wrote about it in the October newsletter and covered it briefly in episode 71 of the podcast: https://t.co/aqy014XTWd
Asif Suria on X
The situation reminds me of Tidewater $TDW (without the flip-flopper angle). I recently exited Tidewater from the model portfolio and my personal portfolio: https://t.co/6wmo91Ep9E
Asif Suria on X
The CEO was also buying shares last month but we prefer buying by directors and that is why Tor Olav Troim's purchases were more interesting. From our Insider Weekends article about $BORR: https://t.co/RQlcc0qJqa
Asif Suria on X
Another large insider purchase by a director of Borr Drilling $BORR filed today (yesterday was a holiday for the SEC and so no Form 4 filings). This is his largest single day insider purchase coming in at $11.84 million. We had been watching him buy consistently for several weeks and decided to dive into the company in an Insider Weekends article last Sunday. As we did our research, we realized that he was the founder of the company. A couple of screenshots from that article in the next tweet.
Asif Suria on X
@TSOH_Investing Part of that was providing exit liquidity to Blackstone $BX But yes, as is often the case, the buybacks were ill-timed and a use of precious capital.
Asif Suria on X
Congratulations to the Bumble $BMBL shareholders! I am glad the $1 billion number we heard yesterday was the equity value and not the enterprise value like so many of us who follow M&A closely had assumed. We added the deal to our Merger Arbitrage Tool this morning and as I had expected, the spread on the deal is about 2%.
Asif Suria on X
@RecoveryTrade @compound248 Even with the current lax antitrust environment, I think it would be difficult to get a $MTCH and $BMBL deal past the FTC or DOJ.
Asif Suria on X
Here is what I wrote about Blackstone's $BX involvement with Bumble $BMBL, the potential deal situation and their recent debt refinancing: https://t.co/wVQYKuaBtx
Asif Suria on X
We wrote about Bumble $BMBL as a potential deal situation we wanted to participate in for our August newsletter a few weeks ago and @compound248 has most of this right. Disclosure: I am long Bumble. Here is how the $1 billion acquisition value (if that number is correct) breaks down: Debt at the end of Q2 2026: $451 million Cash on the balance sheet: $154 million Net debt: $297 million Their recent debt refinancing required them to pay down $5 million of debt each month. The company generated over $50 million in free cash flow in Q2 2026, which was down from over $70 million in Q1 2026. Assuming they generated an additional $40 million in free cash flow in Q3 2026, net debt is probably closer to $260 million. This leaves $740 million for the equity portion of the deal. Common Class A shares outstanding: 131.86 million (as of June 30 from latest 10-Q) Common units (can be converted to class B shares): 21.25 million RSUs: 12.36 million I am not counting 1.42 million options because the vesting price is over $17. The 17 Class B shares are also a rounding error. Hence total diluted shares outstanding work out to approximately 165.47 million. The per share acquisition price works out to $4.47. Regarding the stock trading at a 8% discount to acquisition price, I will have to disagree because CEO Whitney Wolf Herd is supposed to roll over her equity and I don't see much antitrust risk. The average spread of the 79 active M&A transactions we are tracking is 3.96%. This includes deals like Western Union's $WU acquisition of International Money Express $IMXI that is trading at a spread of over 47% Normalized spreads excluding outliers are closer to 2%. I'll include parts of our August writeup about Bumble in the next tweet.
Asif Suria on X
@stockoholics Exactly! And this was before the potential of a competing offer from that New Zealand billionaire $MAT https://t.co/nPw29yiWae
Asif Suria on X
Interesting little note that caught my eye considering we just covered the potential bidding war for Mattel $MAT in our latest podcast episode: https://t.co/wq4oXlM46g https://t.co/1SPndBwMNE
Asif Suria on X
@friedoystercult You are right and that is certainly interesting! From what I can see, he hasn't bought $PDEX since 2020. I'll have to keep an eye out for his future purchases. https://t.co/WXiB4J6NXt
Asif Suria on X
One of four companies I added to my watchlist after attending the @PlanetMicroCap conference in Vegas earlier this year. $PDEX In this case, the trajectory of financials matches management's enthusiasm. Scores 80 on our quantitative model. https://t.co/RxlCUUiHic https://t.co/eqZIigoK2W
Asif Suria on X
@_99Paul99 I've been patiently waiting for it. Hopefully a deal for $LION comes in high enough to satisfy Feltheimer, Mnuchin and Rachesky.
Asif Suria on X
What a powerhouse. Almost makes me wish Netflix $NFLX had succeeded in closing this deal. It will be interesting to see the trajectory of Skydance's $SKYD net debt on the balance sheet over time. While David Zazlav and Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD were criticized a lot for creating a highly leveraged behemoth, they had been consistently paying down that debt:
Asif Suria on X
That last line almost reads like a rallying cry to short sellers. No position but have been watching the founder/CEO fight his way back into the top role. Beyond company specific issues, this has been a tough space over the last year for $BETR, $OPEN, $Z and $CSGP https://t.co/lchEnZBDAh https://t.co/w0fwIoF1Vs
Asif Suria on X
This is indeed highly unusual. I have seen billionaires get involved in actively buying a stock (Alfred Mann with MannKind $MNKD , Philip Frost with Opko Health $OPK, Harold Hamm with Continental Resources, etc.) but they are usually companies they founded or are deeply involved in.
Asif Suria on X
Links to the podcast on Spotify, YouTube and Apple Podcasts can be found here: https://t.co/aqy014XTWd $NVDA https://t.co/gr0Q2kFHdc
Asif Suria on X
We are back for the third season of the The Special Situations Report podcast and kicked off episode 71 with four key stories: 1. An update related to Liquidia $LQDT, a company that we discussed with @Steven_Kiel and @CFAs4CFPs earlier this year. 2. A potential deal for the healthcare technology company Waystar $WAY 3. A sudden CEO departure at the database company MongoDB $MDB 4. NVIDIA’s massive $150 billion stock buyback
Asif Suria on X
"Too busy counting his cash" 😀 $WBD He started even before the deal closed: https://t.co/NLDnCJldgP https://t.co/1SidBA0O6d
Asif Suria on X
@SmallCapVal Was excited to see an insider purchase at $CME filed yesterday but it turned out to be a dividend reinvestment as most of the purchases at $CME tend to be. https://t.co/E7mlsW02I3
Asif Suria on X
@accrued_int Yes indeed! Tons of buying In $DKS since August. Retail has generally been a difficult sector for me and so I am approaching this cautiously. https://t.co/sQw6OWE2zl
