X
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
$MDT $MMED exchange offer an interesting special sit… Own shares of MDT and swap for MMED at 7% discount Odd lot provision for 99 shares held too High enough share price to be worthwhile ($90+ MDT price works out to $600+ profit in a few weeks time)
$TPB starting to round trip here... way off its early 2026 highs haven't been following this since mid-2025, help me catch up on what's happening lately? https://t.co/HcsiMJXkuq
Wrote about this one recently and own some $MNRO shares + calls... Would be surprised if this isn't sold within next 12 months... https://t.co/ejb0AOkbQ5 https://t.co/g0WyapQYQg
Imminent spin-off activity coming: • $CTVA → $VYLR set for Oct 1 • $MOD → $THRM (RMT) set for Oct 1 Behind that we have: • $KBR investor day Nov '26 → spin early '27 • $FLEX investor day Nov '26 → spin early '27 • $GPC investor day Dec '26 → spin early '27
$ZD doing well lately, been thinking about closing out my position but wondering if something’s up… Hmm… https://t.co/ytvQSD6x7y
Looking at housing-related stocks lately... 2022 spin $MBC recently merged with $AMWD to consolidate kitchen cabinet manufacturers 1.5bn cap with ~1.2bn net debt and 2027 EBITDA est. at 350m (7.7x) The ugly: brushing up against debt covs, tariffs ramping, sales still falling https://t.co/hKPm2wXxPZ
August quick value write-ups... 1) $CALM -- cheap P/B mean reversion idea 2) $MNRO -- strategic review + activist + CEO incentive 3) $FOUR -- beaten down roll-up 4) $MKTW -- fundamental inflection point https://t.co/RcptMg3HfE
Commentary from $SHOE on Q2 results Footwear market sounds pretty awful right now Literally just wrote up $DECK and thinking might still be early https://t.co/gzUth0HisU
$TRIP just keeps drifting lower Chart looking pretty ugly... but soon to receive ~70% of market cap in cash from a divestiture Hmm... https://t.co/id7F8fQ7PS
$GME has 50%+ leases expiring in FY2026 and another 24% in FY2027 Maybe some risks in re-leasing at higher costs, but this is a huge advantage to walk away from unprofitable or underperforming stores fast https://t.co/mbsvLtgudI https://t.co/peHc0ImMzs
Hard to see how $CNK doesn’t beat next Q https://t.co/sM58z3IQYp
Would much rather own $CALM https://t.co/Kvr8sFALPr
Risk/reward at $75 looks really attractive… Own some $CALM common and Feb 2027 call spreads at $80 / $85 strike DYODD :) https://t.co/zbjdWieHQS
Another consumer staples dividend cut... $CPB reducing dividend by 36% (CAG cut theirs in half) https://t.co/VVVvo0Gh8k
@kab604 $CALM is excellent at managing a (very) cyclical business
Am I thinking about $GME right? (ignoring recent convertible exchanges) 593m share count assumes all debt converts to equity x $19/sh = $11.3b market cap Less $10b net cash & ebay stock = $1.3b EV Trailing GAAP EBIT for underlying retail stores = $480m EV/EBIT at 2.7x
$APTV This RemainCo looks cheap, but ugly looking chart... https://t.co/GTJKSyt0ew
$AMRZ been a dud since mid-2025 spin-off Granted, lots of building-related stocks also underperforming Still doesn’t feel all that cheap to me, but admittedly a decent business Wondering if they’ll eventually separate the 2 divisions (cement vs. building supplies) https://t.co/cVOmWzmaRZ
$DKS $DECK both going back on my to-do list… https://t.co/GTbiN0YRAs
Mean reversion idea: $CALM 1) consistently trades at ~2x BV vs. ~1.5x today 2) consistent BV compounding (~18% CAGR since '06) 3) mid-teens ROEs justify 2x BV 4) net cash >30% BV / >20% market cap (fortress B/S) Cyclical but very short cycle time (supply driven) I own some
$FOUR Wrote about this one recently… seems like an interesting roll-up with a story that’s getting less complex (former Up-C structure) https://t.co/CV5VPUekSL https://t.co/llyNFPKqsD
UBS with the ol' $30 to $59 price target increase on $ZD https://t.co/Eyivz0j9pq
Mean reversion idea: $DIS super simple idea here… High quality business (parks, cruises, broadcast network, movies, ESPN, Disney+) Trading at a 25% discount to median earnings multiple while earnings recovery progressing nicely
