I Finally Proved That the Market Is Not Efficient
Bread Financial’s 10-year Signet card deal transfers an estimated $526.5 million in NPV to Signet and $1 billion in payments, while BFH…
Substack
Shallow Dives
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
All That Glitters Is Gold: What's Really Holding Up Signet ($SIG)
Signet’s shrinking store base and unit volumes have been masked by gold prices, while declining service-plan sales threaten its main profit…
CareDx ($CDNA): Phantom Revenue is Driving the Rally
CareDx's rally rests on prior-period collection adjustments, while transplant test volumes grew 17% and competition, management turnover…
Fast Growth, Weak Controls: The Trouble Beneath Kestra Medical ($KMTS)
Kestra Medical’s growth was flattered by reserve benefits, while weak WCD compliance and Element’s Jewel patch threaten ASSURE’s advantage.
The Maintenance Capex Mirage at Americold ($COLD) and Lineage ($LINE)
Americold and Lineage face a cold-storage supply overhang, weakening rents and labor and power costs that pressure thin NOI margins and…
Hilton Grand Vacations ($HGV): 17 Years of Inventory on Hand That No One Is Questioning
Hilton Grand Vacations faces scrutiny over 17 years of inventory on hand, with the thesis calling for a short position.
$BAX Is Down 80% and Still Not Cheap
Baxter International has fallen 80% yet remains expensive, making it a short candidate.
Small FPGAs, Big Problems: The Looming Identity Crisis for Lattice ($LSCC)
Lattice Semiconductor faces an identity crisis in small FPGAs, with a short thesis on $LSCC.
Bread Financial ($BFH): When You Outsource Everything Except the Downside
Bread Financial is a short thesis centered on outsourcing operations while retaining downside risk.
Cracks in the Coconuts: Why Vita Coco’s ($COCO) Growth Narrative is Spoiling
Vita Coco’s growth narrative is deteriorating, supporting a short thesis on COCO.
Why Lindblad's Record Year Should Terrify Its Shareholders
Lindblad's record year is the basis for a short thesis against LIND.
Hasbro Isn't a Toy Company Anymore. That's the Problem.
Hasbro’s shift beyond toys is framed as the core problem for the company.
ServiceTitan ($TTAN): The IPO Hangover Has Only Just Begun
ServiceTitan faces slowing growth, a rich valuation, accounting concerns, executive turnover and stock sales by management and legacy…
Between the Vectors: Decoding MongoDB’s Acquisition Math and Executive Exodus
MongoDB’s acquisition math and executive departures.
Short CNM
Core & Main faces a short thesis centered on the risks in its roll-up strategy.
Short LUMN
Lumen Technologies faces a fading boost from its PCF-related sugar high.
