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Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
$LULU...what a joke. We've been short since $470. And anyone listening to #TheCall this week heard @KeithMcCullough and I going back and forth about how The Signal and the Fundamentals weakening were aligning in a way that got this stock on our Top 5 Most actionable shorts earlier this week. #boom
$ANF today...for real? I have no skin in the game here, but a 35% move makes zero sense given that strength in Abercrombie was literally offset by a decel at Hollister. Stock trading as if a short book got blown up and tapped out on this.
This short has been money for us this summer. Down -17% into the print on heavy volume (ie someone got the memo early) and down another 25% today. $DKS #DickLocker https://t.co/Qr1gSnhnuc
This is the beginning of the end for $ONON. It's clinging to its Gross Margin by a thread. First Sales crack, then Margins follow. 24x EBITDA? How about 12x EPS! https://t.co/jBnX2Z95e1
[With data centers being built, workers come to Boot Barn for footwear]...per the company. So you expect us to believe than now this dog is a play on AI Capex? C'mon man...$BOOT https://t.co/2TUL38S7Rm
We're Short $BOOT, and this 2Q guidance looks terrible. Guiding store comps -1% for a company with an egregious 10% hurdle rate to leverage occupancy costs poses massive risk to this model falling apart.
BofA out with a 'bullish' call on $WRBY this morning with a PT only 10% above where it's trading. Seriously, why even make that call? The base business alone is worth $40-$50ps, then add on catalyst calendar around AI Glasses and the sky is the limit. Went long $WRBY at $19 (after being short it from ~$45). I've been at this for a hot minute, and I think WRBY will be the best long call of my career. Swing big, my friends...
Per @HedgeyeHC $PFE has been asleep at the switch. Was this really the best pedigree to go after for $NKE? The existing talent (Regional CFOs) that were passed over for the CFO role are gonna be pissed...While they're at it, gotta replace IR. It's part of the problem. https://t.co/FIPFTrZrd9
$NKE fires CFO -- can I get an Amen??? Dude's forecast accuracy was simply horrible. New CFO from $PFE. Does not change that Nike is about to go into the biggest investment cycle in its history. It will likely pay off -- but not for 3-5 years. Until then it will continue to ceede share. Still Short NKE.
$WRBY is bank here. Catalyst calendar is ripe for literally the next 18 months. Numbers are going up, and the multiple with it. https://t.co/4XFZ4oe241
Could #MarcJacobs save $GIII? What say you @HedgeyeRetail_2
$DKS approaching ATH with a solid gain in a red retail tape. We're short it, so it's working against me right now. Recently moved it lower on our Position Monitor as near-term fundys are in the company's favor. Data looks good right now -- but the data doesn't show margins. And that's my biggest concern here -- zero flow through from comp to margin in the DSG concept (especially house of sport). And FL, well, it's still FL. #DickLocker
A few weeks back, I said something to the effect of "who could be stupid enough to short $CHWY at $25." Lo and behold, the stock is now ticking at $17.50. My statement was wrong. We're not Long CHWY -- yet -- but this company has a solid moat in a duopoly with $AMZN and it's kind of mind numbing to see it trade at 6.8x EBITDA. Valuation is not a catalyst, but we're definitely doing the deep dive on whether going all in on CHWY sub $20 is the right call. Over a TAIL duration, I don't see how you lose. But over TREND, not so sure. Stay tuned...
KSS appoints a COO -- dude is no slouch...West Point grad, Harvard MBA, Target, Ulta and Foot Locker logistics roles. Gotta wonder why he accepted the job at $KSS. Must be slim pickings out there. Better logistics won't solve KSS' problem -- that it's losing relevance with the consumer who is shifting to Off-Price retailers -- $TJX, $ROST, $BURL. I give KSS 18 months before it's gone.
Yeah, $AEO is STILL a short.
#Quad4 looming in June. To be clear, Quad4 is horrible for retail stocks — with the only exception being housing-linked retail like $RH $FND $HD etc…
$VSXY...wow. Been long this name since $18..It's blown through my fair value. But if you're looking for the next VS, look no further than sister company $BBWI. Heavily shorted, dirt cheap, fundamentally a stronger business than VSXY. Likely to beat top and bottom line in 2H.
$DKS doing a horrible job on this call explaining away how core Dick's EBIT was barely up on a monster 6% comp. Locker is hopeless...
Heidi O’Neill is literally the WORST choice to be the new $LULU CEO. She’s going to turn this company into an even hotter mess than it already is. So much talent out there and they picked the person that did nothing but fail at $NKE. The Board messed up big time here. I know me being loud on this ensures that I’ll be blocked from all access. I don’t care. This is laughable.
Hey $KSS...Thanks for showing up today. You 'beat the quarter'. Golf clap. Comp missed. GM missed. Made the FCF number by cutting SG&A and Capex. Basically burning the office furniture. Extended payables -- vendors working with you to stay alive -- until the don't. $NKE will be the first to pull. Then you file...
$HELE Helen Of Destroy out with another punk quarter. Organic sales down 10%. Trouble brewing in China. Cut guidance again. We shorted this at $120 with a $5 price target. Stock struggling to hold $20 this a.m. Sticking with this one...
So $LULU finally fires CEO, which is why the stock is up. I get that. We've been making the 'fire Calvin' call for over a year. But what the market misses here is that new CEO will have to re-base numbers by at least 30%. That sends the stock closer to $100. We shorted it at $470, and are staying put.
This image of $WRBY price targets is laughable. 10 of them are below current stock price. We're either going to see downgrades, or an upshift in targets. I'm assuming the latter, but even the most bullish Old Wall analysts will come out at $50 tops. We're at $500. https://t.co/WNmlffRZYQ
I absolutely LOVE the influx of $WRBY bears hitting me since our call. I have yet to hear an argument that shakes my conviction that this stock is going to double, then double again, and again, etc... https://t.co/4eQmjREfmA
