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Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
Another odd-lot split-off worked out for SSI subs. $MDT offer expired at the max exchange ratio, with MMED shares expected this week. Hedged odd lots from write-up levels should net ~$600 after borrow fees and dividends. Full pitch below 👇 https://t.co/obUHH77Ddq
$GNTX is a dominant auto supplier trading at an undemanding valuation. - #1 in auto-dimming mirrors - Higher-value products improving the mix - Clean balance sheet, zero debt - ~10x normalized unlevered FCF Pitch by Palm Valley Capital https://t.co/PejMkBsOiv
$ONT first got hammered on what looked like a temporary earnings blip, completely overshadowing the potential sale thesis. Now another hit. A former employee alleges ONT helped downplay contamination from the 2023 East Palestine derailment. Stock is down another ~25%. It’s starting to look genuinely cheap, but the legal/regulatory overhang is hard to underwrite. A wider investigation, penalties or further civil claims could all follow, and the whole thing could easily complicate the sale process. Glad we didn’t commit here. Any thoughts on the potential exposure?
$GLND is absolutely ripping, now at 4.5. I guess it’s a good thing I don’t short small/microcaps. This would’ve been very painful. https://t.co/KYQBfG9zGK
@lazereater You can read about $LWAY drama here: https://t.co/gEWWLrfgXV
Love me some microcap crap. $GLND, an early-stage oil exploration company in Greenland, has just more than doubled in value. Well, of course, the Greenland-Denmark-US security agreement was announced. It all makes sense now: there is oil in Greenland, so obviously the agreement means the oil will be extracted. Perfect connection. To be serious, though, this is one of the most promotional stories I’ve seen recently. Why? GLND plans to drill what the CEO claims could be $1T worth of oil reserves in Greenland. The problem is that not a single well has ever been drilled on this land. The company does not even have the green light to drill yet. And btw, GLND doesn’t even own the licence. $80M.L owns it and is currently being acquired by GLND. The spread is extremely wide, but I wouldn’t touch it. The whole thing smells fishy. 80M.L and its management also have a terrible track record of dilution built around promises of enormous exploration potential across other Greenland projects. Unsurprisingly, very little came of those stories. The worst part here is the media coverage. It largely misses the promotional nature of the story and instead keeps feeding the Trump/Greenland narrative that management appears happy to lean into. That is also why you now get a huge move in GLND on a security agreement that, as far as the underlying oil project is concerned, changes essentially nothing. Microcap world is a fun place to be.
$PRTH +34% pre-market after Priore raised the bid to $8.05/sh. Def. deal now signed after ~10 months. With Priore controlling ~55%, this looks largely done. Two very lucrative trades for SSI: +30% first time around, then +40% after re-entering on the pullback. Full pitch👇 https://t.co/EBiGxWJZf2
$PDEX looks like a stable medtech biz with robotics upside thrown in almost for free - Largest customer extended through 2028 - Exclusive hardware partner for Zimmer Biomet’s mBôs platform - Recurring procedure-linked sales - CVRs could add ~$6.80/shr Pitch by @CaptnKirk13 https://t.co/SItNIqKB1K
Positive update for $HHS. The go-shop produced multiple acquisition proposals, and at least one bidder remains in discussions after the deadline. Star has already been notified, so there is now a real path to a superior bid. Full pitch in original tweet👇 https://t.co/PmNZqELqM2
$PRTH spread is basically gone. Stock now trades just above the low end of Priore’s offer, with the market starting to price overbid optionality back in. Full pitch on SSI👇 https://t.co/43nXgjNmo4
$HHS merger arb with a ~13% spread and closing expected in 1–2 months. Shareholder vote looks straightforward. Main wrinkles are financing consent and illiquid $STRRP consideration, but neither looks fatal. Full pitch on SSI👇 https://t.co/RvUWm71VuZ
@AndrewRangeley Full $PRTH pitch here: https://t.co/P31Z8owE6q
@AndrewRangeley did a great pod with Zack from Buckley Capital on $PRTH. See the screenshot for a brief breakdown of the discussion. Full SSI write-up below👇 https://t.co/qhyD9esgF5
Valuation firm finally appointed for $CPAC. This starts Holcim’s 60-business-day clock to launch the mandatory tender. Floor price firmly set at around $13/ADR, with some upside optionality from the independent valuation. https://t.co/hPCFKmYQvT
Yet another merger arb win for SSI. $LPSN played out just as predicted. Merger approved, closing tomorrow. Couldn’t have timed it much better. Nice +18% in just 3 days. Full pitch on SSI 👇 https://t.co/BxCJxOKcx7
$GDOT is a cheap bank turnaround hiding inside a fintech story. Trades at ~0.75x TBV with a new management team, an under-earning asset base to fix, and peers well above book. ~30% upside with decent downside protection. Full pitch on SSI👇 https://t.co/QkuJlDJK9N
I really want to be wrong on $LSTA this time around. It’ll be pretty bad for retail shareholders if, by the end of the day, the offer still hasn’t been lobbed. https://t.co/k99Zo100XP
$CPAC is +16% since the SSI write-up, and the key tender-price ambiguity is finally resolved. ~$13/ADR now looks like a solid floor. With much of that already priced in, the remaining upside is mostly valuation/overbid optionality. Full pitch on SSI👇 https://t.co/J8Amvtfqou
A formal phase-two strategic review is now underway. Transaction comps imply 10–14x EBITDA versus $PBI’s much lower multiple. Greystone’s conservative value is in the mid-$20s versus ~$16.50, with a deal offering further upside.
AI could pressure $DOX revenue, but also lower delivery costs. If the embedded managed-services franchise holds up, modest growth and buybacks could drive attractive returns without a heroic recovery. The key risk is AI savings flowing to customers rather than shareholders.
9/ $PBI pitch by @GreystoneCap Pitney Bowes owns a sticky postage-meter installed base and the only national-scale US presort network. The market still treats it as a terminally declining mailing-equipment business.
8/ $DOX pitch by Rewey Asset Management ~7x FCF for mission-critical telecom software priced like an AI casualty. Roughly two-thirds of Amdocs’ revenue comes from long-term managed services built around proprietary billing and customer-care systems that are risky to replace.
7/ $RMTI pitch by @MinotLightCap Potential $18–30/share vs ~$8. Rockwell supplies dialysis concentrates in an effective US duopoly and has finally turned FCF positive. At entry, ~$15m of net cash backed a ~$30m market cap, leaving the operating business valued at ~$15m.
$RMTI management targets ~$100m of revenue by 2030, potentially supporting $5-10m of FCF. Years of losses and a reverse split have left investors skeptical. Still illiquid and operationally fragile, but sustained cash generation could drive a substantial re-rating.
