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Friday, October 9, 2026

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You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

Brazil’s October 25 runoff puts Bolsonaro’s likely victory at the center of a bullish regional-stock case; Golar LNG (GLNG) also reports fresh news.

GLNG $4.7B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

From X

@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

I've been as skeptical of the semi hype/froth as any of the bears - but also open minded as per our process. We've largely avoided material positions on the long side in the space, with the exception of some trades here and there and some 2nd/3rd order beneficiaries that we identified early-ish. Also short $SOXX in decent size. But that said, and sticking with the open-minded process - it's pretty rare to see gaps between fwd EPS estimates and stock price as wide as what is visible in $SNDK here:
@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

$NFLX incremental margins are 28%, down from 36% in Q1. Tech spend up 22%. Fastest growth in that opex line in many quarters. Incremental margins will improve in 2h, but beyond that, with more live events (expensive sports rights) and investment in short-form, on top of the usual long form scripted, I think there's risk to the pace of operating leverage going forward and thus investors will have less confidence in what has historically been a solid margin expansion story.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Exceptional idiosyncratic short opportunities emerging from the on/off semi trade that is largely indiscriminately moving the markets and sectors each day. (been long opportunities that emerged too) Private credit exposed names have ripped off financial sector rotation and likely some short squeeze in heavily exposed names - names like $FG $MET $MFC (continue to tout these until their exposure is recognized by the market) Software - each name needs to be looked at on its own accord, the broad software is dead or alive from ai does not work. Big rally across the board has left more disrupted names like $PCTY and $PAYC up for the year now. Plenty of others that look good to build sort positions against (especially if you have long software/dats service provider exposure) Dispersion past quarter should set up some very interesting opportunities that should have to stand on their own fundamentals when earnings come

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Boyz in the Hood

Robinhood’s AI agents, 24/7 equity trading and 10:1 crypto perpetual futures encourage higher retail trading velocity, leverage and…

HOOD $91B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 1 click

Golar LNG q2’26 Operational Update

Golar LNG ordered a $2.45 billion fourth FLNG vessel, targeting 3.5MTPA of capacity and $400 million in annual EBITDA under a 20-year…

GLNG $4.7B
Monte Independent Investment Research

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