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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Good question! $SIVE pre-2026 targeted custom CPO deployments like Ayar. Many of these architecturally were pushed back to 2028. Only Q3 2025, did Sivers shift to mass commercialization products, with 7 new pluggable players, including $JBL H1 2026. Sivers is also sampling NPO 200mW lasers with a series of players and hints at future 400mW capabilities for CPO. Since Sivers previously focused on custom scale up CPO players, then only recently applied their technology to near term pluggables and NPO commercialzable opportunities. They missed a lot of deployment windows others are capitalizing on now. But I think everything comes together H2 2027. I think optical TAM keeps exponentially increasing into 2030, so even if they missed 2026 or early 2027 deployments… market capture opportunity is very large relative to valuations $SIVE in my opinion is the golden goose of optical opportunities but it all comes down to to management execution, which has been slightly disappointing as of recent.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Following the $MRVL and $LITE acquisition announcement… Samsung Electronics has been doing vertical integration of their own in photonics to thermal: - New report from Bloomberg states that Samsung Electronics is in talks to buy $MOD Modine. Which supplies thermal/cooling infrastructure for AI data centers. - 2 days ago from Digitimes, Samsung has purchased series of silicon photonics patents from Rockley Photonics (that previously was bankrupt). Covering modulators and PICs, mainly around design and integration. This follows earlier leaks that “Samsung is reportedly considering acquisitions in the silicon photonics space” After Samsung’s reportedly pursues optical engine and PIC manufacturing by 2027, and CPO services by 2029. We’ll likely see this trend accelerate with M&A vertical integration across AI supply chains. Especially considering valuations from smaller upstream companies collapsed recently, despite their strategic significance.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

It can be true that Jensen is a GOAT and there is no true replacement for him, but also that $NVDA will be just fine. I’d bet the deep, long-tenured bench will keep culture and strategy mostly unchanged for some time (maybe slightly less risk appetite but that could be a positive depending on where we sit in the cycle), and it is easier to sustain the position NVDA has built than to build it from scratch. Probably even more true from a stock perspective given low entry valuation and most investor timelines. The AI buildout cycle length will have a far greater impact on the value of NVDA over the next couple years than Jensen being in CEO seat or not.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Just to state the nuances of my opinion: Jensen is irreplaceable to $NVDA. No other CEO can visit a chicken shop in Korea, noodle shop in Japan And rally hundred of billions of capital and supply chain commitment into Nvidia’s next technological vision. As for Nvidia: the their roadmap is intact, their existing commitment and revenues are still preserved under Jensen’s leadership. They’ll still be around 5-10 years from now, given how fundamentally important they are to AI supply chains. Under a new leader they can still continue growing if AI demand is intact and maintain their current lines. But I don’t know anyone who can possibly think that under anyone else, whether it’s Tim Cook or an accountant: That Nvidia could compound 70% capacity constrained growth Y/Y, without a leader like Jensen making these transformational bets. As for AI implications: I’m heavily bullish directionally, given AI is the most transformational technology in human history. - I expect some potential slowdown in Nvidia’s ecosystem. I don’t think an accountant can make the same aggressive level of commitments to Neoclouds or supply chains in Taiwan, Korea, Japan beyond existing architectures. Then rally the capital and trust to make it happen. - I do expect the next CEO to be more politically aligned with Washington in restricting China GPU access - I also see the next CEO being less supportive of open weight models (positive for OpenAI/Anthropic) - I’m less optimistic on $NVDA maintaining their competitive advantages against $AMD, $AVGO, and hyperscalers. One person doesn’t break the AI trade, I expect companies from optics to memory to still outperform. However, my confidence in the next leg of Nvidia’s growth, beyond their current roadmap, has been shaken without Jensen Huang.

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