Negligible Capital on X
If I wanted to buy a traditional telco like $VZ $T or $TMUS I'd probably post something like this to crush terminal value for a year or 2 then move in https://t.co/lxEl3f1IBL https://t.co/HEYcNFl7Uq
NYSE
At&t INC.
T
15 stories
$170B Market cap · 2026-10-08
Cluseau Investments on X
I hope $T and $VZ continue getting this attitude adjustment. Guys have more line items in their bill than a hospital
A Capital on X
Is Starlink Mobile impact on $VZ $TMUS $T perception vs. reality given the actual buildout requirements (capex, timing, etc.)? 🤷♂️ https://t.co/1BE8NqSufn
Laughing Water Capital on X
@MPORielly @FierceNetwork_ 2/2) Elon knows that this is not enough. He wouldn't buy one shoe unless he thought the next shoe would soon be available. That is $NN. Just based on how much mkt cap $VZ and $T are down, they should want it too if only for defensive reasons.
Laughing Water Capital on X
@MPORielly @FierceNetwork_ 1/2) clearly not enough low band to stand up a MNO. https://t.co/Am2muUazRE This is the equivalent of buying only one shoe. It doesn't do the job. Theoretically that makes $VZ, $T etc more motivated to participate in a bidding war for the next piece of available low band $NN
SG on X
let me be the curmudgeon and point out that these announcements by Elon often don't proceed at quite the pace that the market expects. FSD, solar roof tiles, etc... placing some stinkbids in the overnight for $VZ $T. https://t.co/Uyt8txNAb9
Laughing Water Capital on X
@darkstarsats 3/x $NN) so while you are calling $NN's 15 MHz of low a "small slice" in reality it is not much smaller than what $T bought, and it could be multiples of what they have AVAILABLE
Laughing Water Capital on X
@darkstarsats 2/x $NN) This why $T bought 20 mhz of low band from $ECHO. $VZ and $TMUS have more subs than $T and about the same amount of low band. Logically, $VZ and $TMUS must also be dealing with low band congestion.
Laughing Water Capital on X
@darkstarsats 1/x $NN) you note that carriers "control" ~50 mhz of low-band each. respectfully, "control" is clearly not the relevant variable. how much they have AVAILALBLE is what matters. $T commented that they were capacity constrained on low band.
Negligible Capital on X
$TMUS, $VZ, $T, teleco's continuing underperformance today after getting sold hard last week. GS last week blamed Instinct and Muse for the selloff given their ability to negotiate and cancel bills: "While US telcos traded down (TMUS -5.5%; AT&T-2% & VZ -3%) on concerns on X chatter around Meta’s Muse and rival AI agent Instinct has focused on their new ability to make outbound calls to U.S. businesses, including negotiating phone and cable bills on behalf of users. This could become a risk for telcos because AI agents can wait on hold, escalate with support teams, switch users to cheaper plans, remove add-ons and claim credits at scale—potentially increasing pressure on ARPU, retention economics and customer-service costs. The same risk applies to European names as these AI assistant role out. But its NOT just telcos as other industries could also face pressure -industries most at risk are those with recurring bills, negotiable pricing, confusing add-ons, high churn incentives and customer-service friction—including cable/broadband, insurance, utilities, banks/credit cards, subscriptions, travel, healthcare billing, retail returns, auto leasing and gyms. If AI agents can persistently call, wait on hold, compare offers, cancel services, claim credits and renegotiate terms on behalf of customers, companies that rely on inertia or under-claimed discounts could face higher retention discounts, lower add-on revenue, more support volume and weaker pricing power. PS – have been using Instinct for a week of so – its pretty impressive once you get past the hesitance of giving access to parts of your life (not brave enough on a bank account) – book restaurants, tennis courts, highlight must read emails – its also picks up inaccuracies of emails and sources what is inaccurate." - GS Sean Johnstone
Raging Capital Ventures on X
But if returns on capital are declining for everyone, the choice is whether to eat or to be eaten? $T is willing to subsidize fiber as a loss leader to protect their wireless margins. $CHTR / $CMCSA are likewise willing to give away wireless to protect their broadband margins… which comes back to the question: which is stickier, your phone or broadband line? I think $CMCSA works because of the spin unlock and sheer strength of their balance sheet. $CHTR is a very long dated call option with more risk, but much more upside if broadband losses attenuate and/or they allocate capital intelligently (although $CHTR’s balance sheet is more levered, there is tremendous optionality in its duration, cost and structure).
Raging Capital Ventures on X
@BigIdeasCapital I agree with the logic and own both $CHTR and $CMCSA, but what if cell phones are stickier than broadband lines? $T’s fiber “loss leader” offering might be more attractive than cable’s cheap wireless service?
RiverRoadPartners on X
Similar to what we’ve seen happen at $WMT HQ, $T has found a way to cap/hold flat AI spend; a router sends each task to the cheapest model that can do the job, & open weight models that are now good enough for most of the work. Hearing this more & more as I speak to companies.
Laughing Water Capital on X
Think signal value for $NN is very high here. Ajit Pai, Brendan Carr’s mentor at the FCC, is Pres and CEO of CTIA. Execs from $VZ and $T are chair and vice chair. Unlikely they put Mariam on the board unless $NN future is bright. 💯% Pai knows what is happening behind FCC doors. https://t.co/4Jtm3aiAf9
Laughing Water Capital on X
Interesting framing for $NN. $95 is pretty far above my upside case, but agree the $T / FirstNet arrangement is interesting context, despite some obvious differences. https://t.co/b3FsHVkivk
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