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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@MaiusPartners

Maius on X

Compute and infrastructure expenses are expected to reach ~$13.0bn in Q4 as the $SPCX contract ramps. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to reach $18.6–20.3bn in Q4, up ~10–20% QoQ, with the competitive environment and holiday seasonality as potential headwinds. That puts revenue per compute dollar at ~1.5x. Meanwhile, roughly $80/$120bn of payments are against disclosed commitments in 2027/28 that help underwrite the entire global AI trade. The harder question is how quickly and profitably can API usage grow next year? Coding has been a clear winner. But sustaining growth requires either deeper usage within the industry and/or broader deployment across other high knowledge-intensive industries (finance, healthcare, legal). For the former, a ceiling is emerging, especially when sophisticated clients choose to train their own models to avoid the closed-source tax (e.g., Palantir). For the latter, those opportunities are large but much harder to capture, as turning them into reliable production systems requires data integration, domain-specific knowledge, corporate and regulatory approvals, and sometimes an entire organizational workflow redesign. Anthropic’s own $100m program to train 10,000 deployment engineers illustrates the work still required. However, wherever you look, the most sophisticated industry players choose to train their own models, e.g., Harvey AI using Kimi. Given this dynamic, it's not hard to paint a scenario where the“revenue per dollar of compute” metric continues to decline further in 2027 as industry capacity ramps, and hence one can see why the market is becoming extremely skeptical of the entire AI trade, given the labs are essentially underwriting the entire semiconductor industry at this stage. Where am I underestimating the upside: usage intensity (AGI? Humanoid Robots?), deployment speed in legacy industries? Or the entire cost curve?
@Adam_Wyden 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

$DRVN Full year numbers DIDNT CHANGE in our view. They mentioned restatement costs of at least $50mm and the midpoint of restatement before was 40... My guess is incremental restatement cost is 10-20.. So if the restatement is high might have even been a beat... Take 5 comp was 4.9 pct and holding two year stack in 4q would imply 8.5 pct... this seems like a kitchen sink to me. Franchise brands and auto glass both look good too.

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Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 1 click

ASML ($ASML) Deep Dive

ASML monopolizes EUV lithography, a critical tool for leading-edge chips, with production capacity stretched through 2028 and customer…

ASML $591B
Jimmy's Journal 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

ON THE TAPE with Guy Adami

Guy Adami discusses Nvidia, Anthropic's IPO prospects, energy, gold and the AI trade.

NVDA $4.2T
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 5 clicks

DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 3 clicks

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