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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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The companies spending the most on AI are paying for more of it with debt. To understand whether debt-funded spending like this is indicative of a bubble, we can look at William Quinn and John Turner’s bubble triangle, which says a bubble needs three sides: marketability (how easily an asset trades), money and credit, and speculation. The AI boom arguably has all three sides: → Marketability: Index funds held 52% of U.S. long-term fund assets at the end of 2025, up from 19% in 2010, and they buy each stock in proportion to its size, so the biggest AI stocks get the most of every new dollar. → Money and credit: $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN and $META are on track to spend more than $730B on capex in 2026, up from $410B in 2025, and their Q3 reports didn’t change that. $AMZN still expects ~$220B, and $META narrowed its range to $135-145B. Investors are borrowing more too, with margin debt at $1.48T in September, just below June’s record $1.50T. → Speculation: AI startups raised 82.7% of the money U.S. venture capital firms invested in 2026 through September, a record share, up from 65.4% in 2025. So more of the private money is betting on a single theme. $META’s also raising money by selling stock. Its October 27 pricing term sheet shows it sold 40M shares at $625 through forward sale agreements, plus $12.5B of mandatory convertible preferred stock, which together bring in $37.4B of net proceeds once the forward sales settle by November 2027.

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DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $45B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 6 clicks

Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $108B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and…

SPGI $138BICE $101B
Global Outperformers 3 clicks

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXV

Quanta Services’ backlog rose 63% year over year to $64 billion as shares fell 30%, while AI power and data-center construction demand…

PWR $88B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

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SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

PWR $88BORCL $399B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

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