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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Nuclear should bring in $3.7B of the $3.8B of revenue BWX Technologies $BWXT expects in 2026. $BWXT builds nuclear reactors and their heavy components, manufactures nuclear fuel, then services reactors once they’re running. It reports two segments: → Government Operations (73% of 2025 segment revenue, $2,350.1M): Reactors and fuel for the Navy’s submarines and aircraft carriers, uranium processing for the government, microreactor programs, and stakes in the joint ventures running government nuclear sites (booked as equity income, not revenue). → Commercial Operations (27%, $853.1M): Steam generators (heat exchangers turning reactor heat into steam), reactor pressure vessels, fuel, and field services for power utilities, mostly in Ontario. Also Kinectrics (a Toronto-based nuclear engineering and testing firm acquired in 2025) and a medical isotope unit $BWXT is selling. Naval propulsion is the core, at “a little bit less than 1/2” of revenue, CEO Rex Geveden said at $BWXT’s Investor Day on September 29, 2026. Special materials (the government uranium business) makes up 15-20%, and commercial power ~30%. The U.S. government accounted for 68% of 2025 revenue, directly or through prime contractors, down from 76% in 2024 as the commercial side grew. Four large utilities accounted for another 17%, per the FY2025 10-K. What keeps the Navy from switching suppliers is licensing. Only two plants in the U.S. hold Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licenses to produce fuel from high-enriched uranium (HEU, enriched to 20% or more, which is what naval reactors run on). Both belong to $BWXT (Nuclear Fuel Services in Erwin, Tennessee, and its Lynchburg plant), and the 10-K calls Nuclear Fuel Services “the sole provider of nuclear fuel for the U.S. Navy.”
@convequity

Convequity on X

Private equity puts a floor under software valuations, and you can work out that floor with simple arithmetic. A private equity buyer takes the company private, removes unnecessary staff, lifts margins to 30%+ and keeps growth in the low teens. A company restructured that way should be worth at least 20x EV/EBIT. At a 33% EBIT margin, 20x EV/EBIT is about 6.7x EV/Sales. That gives a simple test for any software stock. If it trades well below that level, the market values the business at less than a buyer could get from it just by cutting costs. In our view, the market sees no differentiated future for that company. So why don't more of these companies get restructured? One reason is ownership. Dual-class share structures are common across large-cap and mid-cap tech, and they limit how much pressure private equity and activist investors can apply. That makes it hard for a company like $OKTA to accept legacy status and carry out a deep restructuring. We expect many SaaS companies to keep fighting slowing revenue with high operating expenses rather than restructure.

Investor Letters

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Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

RBLX $36B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

QXO Inc Earnings Update: Q3 2026

QXO's Q3 sales rose 79% to $4.9 billion after TopBuild and Kodiak acquisitions, while acquisition debt lifted interest expense to $163…

QXO $13B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 3 clicks

Cerrado Gold: Research Note

Cerrado Gold will acquire Argentina’s Manantial Espejo mine from Pan American Silver for $20 million and targets a 2027 restart funded by…

PAAS $15B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

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