Myles on X
Has $ADYEN ever not puked on earnings? It feels like one of those $SNAP esque stocks that drops 10% every quarter, steadily climbs back as sentiment recovers just to puke 10% again.
NYSE
Snap Inc
SNAP
46 stories
$10B Market cap · 2026-10-28
BDC on X
$SNAP in the positive FCF club. Fwiw. https://t.co/TfJWE0cIi8
Myles on X
What're you talking about? He just likes the glasses. $SNAP https://t.co/CMhV91Ltz5
Myles on X
The $SNAP pump is on. https://t.co/SnH7Vs6qKb
BDC on X
More evidence that the implied negative valuation for Specs is far too impunitive. $snap https://t.co/q0EaoOEBYL
Myles on X
I wanna short $SNAP so bad. I think for now I'll hold off until after earnings. https://t.co/TpKqIn7GjC
BDC on X
It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.
Myles on X
@stone_maison_ @SowingAlphaSeed Bulls compare $SNAP to social media apps like $META, $RDDT, $PINS and others. However, those all have content as a significant part of the app, which Snap (in spite of their claims) doesn't. It's a simple difference but is the key to 5 years of underperformance.
Myles on X
@amootpoint Lmao, I've made more money shorting $SNAP over the last 4 years than any other short. What's the lesson? Short crappy, unprofitable shitcos. I see you've been holding for a while. https://t.co/zbmu85WArC
Myles on X
@SowingAlphaSeed That's part of it, but my $SNAP thesis has always been that bulls don't understand the product or user base. There's very little ability to monetise the core product (picture messaging) and their user base ages out and is saturated in developed markets. NA MAU is declining.
Myles on X
$SNAP up 40% from the June lows and I'm seeing pitches popping up on fintwit. It may be time to reload the short. Reminder: $SNAP is a forever short. https://t.co/RawmZpUyLp
Serenity on X
Real bubble is in VC land with private companies like Instinct… $10B valuations off 100k users while $SNAP is worth less with close to 1 Billion MAU. Supply chain stocks aren’t a bubble though, if anything names like $AAOI and others are very undervalued relative to forward growth. And you have demand visibility from hyperscalers extending multiple years…
BDC on X
"The underlying tech is insane" Yes. But we are at least 1-2 years away from mass market potential (maybe longer). Bring in external minority investors. Get a SOTP mark. No brainer. $snap https://t.co/otKSFqAFjP
BDC on X
Yes. Minority specs investors get in line. 7k patents. No puck. Who wants to do the sotp for $snap when they get the $5B (at least) mark on Specs? Is 2.5x ebitda cheap? https://t.co/Y3kEu8rObr
Negligible Capital on X
$META has gained about $212B in market cap today, currently up over 12% For perspective, META's market cap has increased by about 22x the market value of $SNAP. Wild moves
BDC on X
Irony to me at this point is that 1.) "frontier" LLMs will need to stay on the spend cycle to maintain frontier status but 2.) at the same time everything behind the frontier will get commoditized - and that will be like 99% of the applications. 3.) $META has a big advantage on consumer agentic bc they can scale it via their consumer app monopolies 4.) Here's where everyone might disagree but $SNAP actually is a more strategic asset thus.
BDC on X
@Jason @evanspiegel "After Elon Musk acquired Twitter in 2022 and re-organized the management and governance structure, Calacanis helped transition Twitter along with David Sacks.[25]" Jason - time to help transition $SNAP/Specs. Run the same playbook.
BDC on X
@Jason @evanspiegel The progress is impressive. But mass market adoption remains years away. They need a size minority equity investor. If they get it, $snap goes up 50%.
BDC on X
Just surfacing this one to demonstrate we are not and never were $snap absolutists. We will go long and short and when facts and circumstances change our opinion changes too. And NO - Specs will not be a mass market hit this holiday season. Too expensive and awk form. But here's the bull case from here: 1. FCF/Share is the metric mgmt now focused on. By definition that requires fresh cost and SBC discipline. 16% hc reduction and flat share count already in place. $500mn in opex savings about to flow through. 2. Ads biz stable enough. 9% growth in Q2. Guide implies so decel. But ad checks stable vs Q2. Decent enough. Some progress on ad tech. Only needs 5% growth next year to hit our numbs. 3. Sub biz $1.2B rr, growing 85%. Needs 50% growth next year to hit numbs. 25mn paid subs, still well below penetration threshold of 7-12%. 4. Specs tech is real. 7k+ patents. Real use cases. What's that worth? $META or $MSFT or $AMZN could buy Specs for the patents alone and pay $2B and it would be nothing to them but all the call optionality which could incubate until form factor is mass market. 5. Lets just say Specs is worth $2B to a strategic buyer or partner. That implies $snap 7.5B or $4.5/ share. In this scenario then FCF/share at SNAP goes to over $1/share, easily. So 4.5x FCF on a business still growing revenue mid teens. @evanspiegel Specs are cool. But can't keep spending $500mn a year on them. Bring in a minority investor please and lets make SNAP stock great again. @IrenicCap
Negligible Capital on X
When Spiegel sell $SNAP to Bending Spoons? They could crank up the Premium+ prices by threatening to delete everyone’s memories if they don’t pay up Valuations pretty depressed, seems right up their alley
BDC on X
Idk it not worth nothing. Snap whole market cap $9b and yet we apparently paying trillions for commoditized “frontier” LLMs that are political nightmares with major leadership questions. $snap is cheap. Specs will get a minority investor. Snap snap can do $1 in FCF / share next year. Consensus is always wrong at these moments.
BDC on X
Maybe this earlier post is hyperbolic. But Specs potential is real and the applications are very real and the implied value to $snap is negative. Btw go back and look at all my snap tweets - been as big a bear as any of you. But the worm is turning. Sub business 85% yy $1b+ rr and ads stable and 16% HC reduction to cut $500mn opex and SBC offset by buyback. So there’s a lot to like here and if specs can get a minority investor which i think is much more likely after today then game on. Oh and by the way snap could still cut opex by 50% just to get in line with $rddt on cost/employee.
Barbarian Capital on X
Snap tries to bring AR glasses to enterprise market, partnering with Nvidia, AWS and Salesforce $SNAP https://t.co/jh1lM0JqYQ
BDC on X
Specs might be the only tech in the world that could fully replace your phone and your life would be better. What's that worth? $snap
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