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Friday, November 13, 2026

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From X

@junkbondinvest

junkbondinvestor on X

Initial reactions to $CRWV 3Q - Capex guide UP, with the low end raised to $37bn from $35bn. That implies $13-15bn in Q4 alone. Anyone here surprised? - $9bn of prepayments expected over the next 3 months. Cool, cheaper than the 15% unsecured debt. Some funding concerns alleviated, but that prepayment is not costless. - Margins improving. Adj EBITDA margin went to 62% from 59% in 2Q. Still ramping, though. - Backlog up $28bn to $132.5bn and contracted power up 900MW to 4.6GW. Contracted power up = more capex = more leases. - Debt up to $46.9bn, cash down to $4.1bn, and lease liabilities up to $18.7bn. Overall, nothing a whole lot changed about the story. Funding picture a bit better (prepayments, no equity, FCF not as bad) but commitments/capex keep growing. Let’s see how the call goes.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Quantum $QMCO, the tape library maker, just reported a record backlog of nearly $100M as of September 30, more than double the record $45M as of March 31! $QMCO’s revenue rose 42.9% to $89.6M in the September quarter (fiscal Q2), $5.6M above the top of its $82.0M ±$2M guidance, and adjusted EBITDA of $11.1M beat the top of its $6M ±$1M guidance by $4.1M. Secondary storage, mainly tape systems, grew 126.2% from a year earlier to $44.7M, half of revenue, up from 32%, with hyperscale demand up more than 2.6x. CEO Hugues Meyrath said on the March-quarter call in June that $QMCO “should see a lot more tape drives” from $IBM, its drive supplier, in the September and December quarters, letting it convert its tape library backlog into revenue. Instead, backlog more than doubled, and Meyrath said on the September-quarter call that demand remained ahead of supply, “particularly media and tape.” He said $IBM’s “statement of direction” is to double its tape drive output year-over-year, but “we just don’t know how quickly IBM is going to ramp tape drives.” Chief accounting officer Hiral Patel added that revenue beat guidance “primarily due to price and volume mix,” and that she expects pricing volatility from component shortages “to remain a headwind going forward.” $QMCO guided December-quarter revenue to just $91.0M ±$2M, up 1.5% at the midpoint, and said any upside depends on how many components it can get. It also guided adjusted EBITDA down to $9.1M ±$1M from $11.1M, as operating expenses rise with commissions and R&D hiring. That revenue guidance still runs at $364M/year, above the $360M of FY2028 revenue (year ending March 2028) in the base case of my October 28 update. At $19.70/share after hours, close to the $20.25 in that update, $QMCO’s EV is 2.4x TTM revenue, down from 2.8x. It’s also 21.6x the December quarter’s adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized, down from 34.4x the September quarter’s. So I read the quarter as $QMCO already running at my base case’s revenue, with the bull case’s $400M still depending on $IBM’s drive supply. What I’d want to see in the December-quarter results: 1) IBM: Meyrath saying $IBM’s tape drive output rose, since my bull case assumes it ramps early in 2027. 2) Backlog: Revenue above the $93M top of guidance and backlog below ~$100M, which would mean $QMCO is shipping orders faster than new ones come in. 3) Gross margin: Holding near the September quarter’s 41.0%, even though the guidance midpoints imply under 40% by my math.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I turned Toast’s $TOST 2027 framework into an adjusted EBITDA estimate, to see what the restaurant software and payments company trades at on next year’s numbers. Incoming CFO Michael Senno will own the 2027 numbers, and he already set the frame on the Q3 call. He said he’s “confident in the 20%+ framework” for recurring gross profit growth (Q4 is guided to 22-24%), but expects “very modest margin progression next year” after a ~36% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026, since $TOST wants room to keep investing in its newer markets. Those newer markets (enterprise, international, and retail) are nearing $200M of ARR and doubling for a second straight year, per CEO Aman Narang, and Senno said the core business already earns margins over 40%. At $34.67/share, $TOST’s enterprise value is $18.3B ($20.1B market cap on 581M shares, less $1.89B of cash and marketable securities, with no debt), or 21.6x 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. In my August 10 update, I said I’d add if a pullback took $TOST down to the high teens on forward EV/EBITDA. On the 2026 guide, that’s ~$29/share, which the stock briefly touched at the start of October. Reading Senno’s “very modest margin progression” as a margin near 2026’s ~36%, 20% recurring gross profit growth would mean ~$1.0B of 2027 adjusted EBITDA. So on 2027 numbers, the stock already trades at ~18x, in the high teens.

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