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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Good question! $SIVE pre-2026 targeted custom CPO deployments like Ayar. Many of these architecturally were pushed back to 2028. Only Q3 2025, did Sivers shift to mass commercialization products, with 7 new pluggable players, including $JBL H1 2026. Sivers is also sampling NPO 200mW lasers with a series of players and hints at future 400mW capabilities for CPO. Since Sivers previously focused on custom scale up CPO players, then only recently applied their technology to near term pluggables and NPO commercialzable opportunities. They missed a lot of deployment windows others are capitalizing on now. But I think everything comes together H2 2027. I think optical TAM keeps exponentially increasing into 2030, so even if they missed 2026 or early 2027 deployments… market capture opportunity is very large relative to valuations $SIVE in my opinion is the golden goose of optical opportunities but it all comes down to to management execution, which has been slightly disappointing as of recent.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Following the $MRVL and $LITE acquisition announcement… Samsung Electronics has been doing vertical integration of their own in photonics to thermal: - New report from Bloomberg states that Samsung Electronics is in talks to buy $MOD Modine. Which supplies thermal/cooling infrastructure for AI data centers. - 2 days ago from Digitimes, Samsung has purchased series of silicon photonics patents from Rockley Photonics (that previously was bankrupt). Covering modulators and PICs, mainly around design and integration. This follows earlier leaks that “Samsung is reportedly considering acquisitions in the silicon photonics space” After Samsung’s reportedly pursues optical engine and PIC manufacturing by 2027, and CPO services by 2029. We’ll likely see this trend accelerate with M&A vertical integration across AI supply chains. Especially considering valuations from smaller upstream companies collapsed recently, despite their strategic significance.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Been thinking about the $ANT Anthropic IPO and I keep coming back to a couple of things that don't quite add up for me. Anthropic works hard to come across as a company for everyone else. It set up the Long-Term Benefit Trust so the mission, not money, elects the board, and the founders are giving 20% of their shares away to the public. Then the IPO. The book is reportedly ~6x oversubscribed on up to $64B, yet $26B goes to suppliers: Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, TSMC. With that much public demand, that feels inconsistent. It sits next to the other contradiction: leadership warns that frontier AI is dangerous without regulation, yet keeps racing the frontier. So why the suppliers? My guess: Anthropic isn't a consumer-facing company. Maybe they worry retail holders would be fickle and sell at the first wobble, while suppliers give them a steady, long-term shareholder base. That's the opposite of $TSLA Tesla, where a diehard retail base helped the company weather storm after storm. Apple too, to a degree. Those are consumer brands, though. The flip side is $PLTR Palantir. Not consumer-facing at all, and it still built a diehard retail following that stuck with it through plenty of storms. Anthropic says it's built for everyone, then hands a big slice of its IPO to its suppliers. It warns about the AI race, then keeps racing. That's the mixed messaging I can't get past.
@convequity

Convequity on X

More details are emerging about Alice Huang and her connection to Jensen Huang $NVDA: - Born around 1977 in Xiangtan, Hunan Province, China. - Attended primary and secondary schools affiliated with a state-owned machinery factory. Her classmates remember her as an assertive, big-sister figure who was always cultivating connections with people of higher status. - She then reportedly attended Xiangtan Health School, a secondary vocational school equivalent to high school, and later allegedly obtained a bachelor's degree from Hunan Normal University through continuing education. - Her father worked at the same state-owned machinery factory. Some accounts say he later became a successful businessman. - Her career has spanned media, finance, private equity and AI infrastructure. - She had two brief stints at Hunan Province TV and China's national broadcaster, CCTV, working as an outside contract journalist rather than a permanent employee. Former colleagues described her as ambitious, hardworking and sharp. - She then earned a Master of Arts in Media Management from Hong Kong Baptist University. - After that, she worked in HSBC's private banking division in Hong Kong and then at CITIC Securities in fund sales. Her husband, Kang Wei, founded Shanghai Hexi Investment Management, which invested in gaming, cloud computing and semiconductors. - She joined Hexi in 2015, holding roles including executive director, partner and fund manager. Hexi had investment ties to Phicomm, which became embroiled in a major fundraising-fraud Ponzicase. Phicomm founder Gu Guoping was sentenced to life in prison. Separately, Hexi and Kang were fined over securities disclosure and trading violations. - In 2023, she pivoted to AI computing infrastructure in Singapore, becoming managing director of Megaspeed International, an NVIDIA Cloud Partner. Later accounts describe her continuing to run the business after formally stepping down. - Megaspeed operated data centers in Malaysia and leased computing capacity to Alibaba $BABA. Overall, this looks like the career of an ambitious socialite who turns relationships and access to influential circles into business opportunities. Very unlikely to be a spy for the Chinese gov who has ceased to use honey trap and using people tied to criminal record for years.
@RagingVentures 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

It is hard to game where $NVDA shares go short term, but I think it is already clear that there is too much capacity in the GPU/TPU business. Major players include: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOG, $AMZN (selling TPUs via cloud tokens), $MRVL, and $AVGO. The sector’s fierce price competition is already evident in the form of loans, loan guarantees, direct investments, and juicy equity warrant packages. $AMD effectively gave up as much as 15%+ of its company to convince $META and OpenAI to use their products. Gun to my head, I think you could be short a basket of $AMD, $AVGO, $MRVL, and $NVDA and do very well over the next 2-3 years as the cycle matures.

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