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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Removing Jensen Huang is a mistake for NVIDIA's board and for US geopolitical policy. At Convequity we were relatively bearish on $NVDA versus $AVGO at the October 2026 valuation, and we did not think NVDA was a clear bargain. That does not change our view that Jensen Huang is the best semiconductor leader the industry has ever had. Removing him outright, without a stronger public story justifying the move, is a mistake. Making the CFO the interim CEO while the board searches for a permanent successor is a massive mistake. No successor can match Jensen's combination of care, vision, and execution. Best case: the next CEO continues Jensen's roadmap and keeps him as a strategic advisor, letting NVDA stay on the frontier of AI chips and infrastructure software. Base case: NVDA prints several years of pretty good numbers, then fades the way Intel did. When a founder-scale leader leaves, too few people inside and outside the company take the long-term view. Wall Street and politicians reward short-term financials and political wins, not the longer-term benefits. Leadership loss does not happen overnight. It arrives years later, when the roadmap Jensen set stops being renewed and the company slips from the frontier. That would be a painful lesson for stakeholders. Without Jensen, NVDA may still ship more chips and scale, but it will not catch the best frontier competitors. It will not make the bold quick moves this moment requires—like acquiring Groq or Hugging Face to adjust to the latest compute paradigm, open-model strategy, and new business models that build moats over the longer term. The CUDA moat is already getting shaky. We agree with one WSJ comment on the news: "A truly stupid idea, shareholders should sue the board and ask for an injunction immediately from a judge." We view removing Jensen as a mistake for the board and for US geopolitical policy.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV I don't look at gross profit only, i look at profit to shareholders after all maintenance expenses like SBC and also capital required to grow the business. I will probably make enemies because of this hardline. On that metric the business is losing money and you'd think by now at their (9k locations?) scale they'd be a lot more profitable. Understanding how much a company currently generates in profits should be simple to understand and not require elaborate gymnastics
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

ARR growth rate is stable finally, but what about their profitability? Think about how easy it is to game ARR and how many company's did successfully before collapsing. not sure it will happen to $evlv, but it does provide a warning to over relying on company derived KPIs, especially if that company has had a history of changing metrics, changing managements, and being successfully sued for providing inaccurate marketing material. Profitability is not improving and that is not a good sign for their LT goal you can be a company that grows revenues and expands margins, you can be a company that grows revenues but contracts margins, you can be a company that grows margins but contracts revenues. you can be a company that loses revenues and margins at the same time. which one is evolv $evlv bulls will argue that we should wait for another quarter or two before we see an inflection in profits. that eventually they will scale into their business. i'm afraid to say that i'm suspicious that profits will materialize in any meaningful way ever. if the technology was so transformative and so much better than competitors, and that they have thousands and thousands of customers already, then why is it still losing money?

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