Big Short Investor Explains How the AI Bubble Could Burst
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom rests on a handful of companies and hundreds of billions in infrastructure spending, risking recession and a sharp market correction.
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom rests on a handful of companies and hundreds of billions in infrastructure spending, risking recession and a sharp market correction.
$CRWV has ~$10bn of unsecured HY notes, all yielding 14-15%. There’s also another ~$11bn of converts. That’s ~$21bn of unsecured claims, sitting behind the secured debt that funds the GPUs. Here's the latest market pricing on the HY notes (converts excluded):
Who had Hyperscalers accelerating to fastest growth rates since Covid at the same time Anthropic massively decelerates on their bingo card for 3Q26? I think very few 3-6mo ago, but here we are! $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN
The asset base is too large and diversified to ever underwrite loan by loan. The thesis is that the private credit apocalypse is exaggerated, $OWL became the poster child given its reliance on the HNW channel, and the market is assigning far too little value to its non-credit assets and durable fee-generating franchise.
@FrenchV33921 Already there with $CRWV and $IREN IS $NBIS worse?
@sidecarcap This is exactly what I think is happening with $SLM $KSPI and maybe $YB. $KNSL too
@Pembrokestcap But isn’t $OWL reputation, and by extension their ability to raise capital, permanently impaired? Who cares if they own valuable GP stakes and real estate businesses that never tapped the high-net-worth channel? Isn’t the entire franchise structurally compromised?
Shorts that aren't actually that overvalued (a 10+15% grower trading at 30x earnings can be overvalued, but still easily trade to 40-50x). Sizing is very important. Stuff like $CBA, $WDFC, $WMT, $WING have been some of my biggest winners this year with no catalyst.
Adult-use cannabis rescheduling would open Altria’s 42% Cronos stake to a U.S. market rerating.
Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.
Nextracker's $6 billion order book supports cross-selling battery storage and inverters, now 22% of revenue, though acquisition-led growth…
DoorDash and Google.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faced new revelations after a week of political upheaval and a broad technology-stock sell-off.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faces an unverified allegation involving a Chinese spy.
Week ahead lists Nvidia, earnings, inflation and PPI releases alongside Iran conflict developments.
Moody’s ratings business faces potential deceleration, while AI-related debt issuance and anti-data-center politics pose less risk than…
Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…
Intel’s EMIB-T, glass-core roadmap and 2027 ABF substrate supply outlook are the focus of an expert call.
China’s housing downturn has cut some flat values 40% since 2021, curbing discretionary spending and sharpening a portfolio focus on…
Kimberly-Clark’s Kenvue merger targets $1.9 billion in synergies by 2029, supporting roughly 6% long-term EPS growth and continued dividend…
Procore CFO Rachel Pyles discusses accelerating growth and economies of scale after an upbeat third-quarter report.
Diageo’s first quarter under CEO Dave Lewis showed modest price changes and regional growth outside North America, supporting a turnaround…
Tower Semiconductor reported $526 million in quarterly revenue and extended photonics contracts through 2029, while its low-loss silicon…
Applied Materials trades at 17.93x forward earnings, with analysts forecasting more than 45% EPS growth through 2028 and a net-cash balance…
AMD’s data-center revenue rose 97%, while MercadoLibre, TIC Solutions, XPEL and Zoetis also report quarterly results.
Amazon's AWS revenue rose 39.3% with a 38.7% margin, while heavy CapEx is expected to keep free cash flow negative through next year.
Steve Eisman links a Democratic midterm sweep and CoreWeave concerns to an AI narrative shift as the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and Nasdaq 5.5%.
Ovintiv’s C$1.26 billion purchase of Logan Energy at roughly 2x proved reserve value points to further consolidation among Canadian oil…
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