A Capital on X
The best trades are where perception <> reality. A common trader exercise is to ask yourself: who is on the other side of the trade and why are they selling to you? What information do they have? Are they more informed than you? The best opportunities are where the seller isn’t more informed, they’re simply misinformed about what’s actually going on. Take $OWL, where the prevailing narrative was a private credit apocalypse, but you did the work and saw the residual value in the fund stakes business and an overblown level of negative sentiment. Or $TLN, where Governor Josh Shapiro and CNN want you to believe data centers are the problem, while the thirst for compute, contractual cash flows and need for electricity remain undeniable. The narrative may work against you initially. That’s often what creates the opportunity. But if your work is thorough enough, your thesis is right and you can hang in there, the gap between perception and reality eventually closes. That’s where alpha is made.
