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Monday, November 9, 2026

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Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

From X

@ActAccordingly 2 clicks

PAA Research on X

Gavin, you're always generous with your time on this platform and forthcoming with your views, which I genuinely appreciate. Where are you getting the $35Bish in future annual commitments when they have $500B in compute purchase commitments over a 5-7 year span PLUS the $AMD chip leasing deal (uncertain tenor) which is another $160B? Anthropic might very well grow fast enough not to burn cash, but that's not how the company frames it in their S-1. Rather than take my word for it, here's the relative language in the S-1: "As a result, we expect these investments to result in significant net cash used in operating and investing activities for the foreseeable future, and our net cash used in these activities may increase regardless of whether our financial performance improves" The business model is changing going forward. $ANT
@ActAccordingly 9 clicks

PAA Research on X

The way we were... I've been wondering why there was such a rush to get the $ANT S-1 filed amidst a brutal sell-off in AI related names. Then I read the filing and it's painfully clear. $ANT has scaled at a mind-boggling clip up until this point. Yes the company did generate operating cash flow and profits in 2Q26, but that no longer is representative of the business model going forward. With $500B+ of compute cost commitments with $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN and $SPCX and a $161B equipment lease with $AMD, the entire cost structure of this business is now changing under the "Anthropic Direct" initiative. They're showing you that delivering inference was a structurally high margin business in 2Q26 (50%+ margin). Will it be going forward? Well they're sitting on something that looks like $85-100B in compute commitments ANNUALLY. As a point of reference they spent $5.5B in 2Q26 on compute. Even if they get towards $80B of ARR by year end (which could be optimistic), it's a big hurdle to get to profitability in 2027 unless ARR doubles (or more). There is a placeholder for October 2026 ARR in the S-1. I cannot think of another single sentence in a SEC filing that will have more of an impact on the fate of capital markets than that one. My guess is everyone in the VC and tech community will up their Claude spend this month for that very reason.

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NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 4 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

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