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Monday, November 9, 2026

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DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $86B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology.

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$NOW's latest earnings show how slowly SaaS companies are moving to outcome-based pricing. One big reason is that work is hard to price by outcome when the outcome is hard to verify. Outside coding, customer service looks like the most verifiable work, and Sierra and Intercom have done well charging per resolved conversation. You might expect NOW to do the same for resolved tickets, but its business now reaches far beyond ticketing. Many work outcomes play out over weeks or months, while outcome-based pricing tends to pay for short-term results. Making an enterprise's work fully verifiable could be one of the biggest sources of value ahead. We expect startups to target this space, and it could unlock the next wave of AI.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Yesterday we recorded a podcast covering two potential deal situations including rumors of Marvell $MRVL acquiring Lumentum $LITE. The deal was confirmed a few minutes before the podcast was uploaded to YouTube this morning. As a Marvell shareholder I was not particularly happy about this deal as I discussed in the podcast and the price action late last week and this morning confirms the market feels the same way. You can check out the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and YouTube here:
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

$LITE standalone would likely be up on earnings after their new $5B CPO/NPO announcement (separate from $NVDA). The margins on that are likely 60%+… which shows how profitable laser players would be at scale. (Greensboro alone would be $5B revenue/year) In terms of the $MRVL deal: - Extremely positive for Marvell strategically. Also makes remaining laser players very valuable - $LITE shareholders can cry though about the 1+ year overhang until deal goes through in 2028. There’s less independent price discovery as well since a lot of it will be pegged around 4.5 Marvell shares : 1 - I think Lumentum shareholders probably would be happier if Marvell shares didn’t crash before the deal was announced.. since it was originally valuing $LITE at $115B with a 23.9% premium. - Marvell dropping does show the downside of the deal straight away though, if it rose then $LITE shareholders might be a tad happier given valuation. Having a fixed dollar MC value floor probably would have been better than the 4.5x:1 ratio. There was a lot of long $LITE, short ___ pressuring other photonics valuations, so at least those trade pairs might unwind now
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

The Anthropic S1/A should ease concerns over the risk of Anthropic backlog exposure for $AMZN $GOOG $AVGO: +$132B of cash and investments +$82B of undrawn loans +$50B run-rate revenue less non-compute cash costs +$100B IPO proceeds Against that, they must fund: -$70B compute due in the NTM, and -$447B over the next 4yrs. If Anthropic revenue is flat from here, they could still amply fund opex and compute commits in the next 4yrs with ~$60-70B to spare.

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NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 4 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

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