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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

My prediction that M365 commercial would accelerate to >20% growth may come true next quarter, based on tonight’s guide. Sooner than I expected*. Right now AI diffusion is happening faster in enterprise than in consumer. $MSFT is effectively the only pure play on enterprise AI diffusion. It’s salesforce, FDE and partner ecosystem, and the security, orchestration and governance capabilities of its platform uniquely unlock new AI TAM in traditional conservative enterprises. $MSFT will now have Azure and M365, which are 2/3 of revenue, growing >50% and >20%. And both stand a good chance of accelerating through the year: more copilot rollout, consumption pricing, and Autopilot for M365, and more capacity coming online and price increases for Azure. I still think $24-25 EPS is achievable in CY27 which would make $MSFT <22x fwd PE, even after a nice run. *helped by re-segmenting which added GitHub! But I think will be true this year regardless.
@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

Initial notes on $MRVL's rumoured $LITE acquisition: 1. Why?! - $LITE's CEO has said they're sold out into 2029. So do management think the InP laser shortage is shorter than what their orders suggest? Need more clarity on why Lumentum would green light this. - With lasers sold out into 2029, I think owning the fab might be the only way $MRVL can guarantee supply for FY28 growth. So maybe Marvell and Lumentum have different reads on the InP laser shortage? 2. This has to be mostly stock. - $MRVL has ~$3.9B cash vs. $5.0B debt. Combined run-rate EBITDA is circa $7-7.5B (my numbers), so I think staying investment grade caps new debt at around $15-20B. - At a ~30% premium that leaves $85-90B+ paid in stock, with $LITE holders owning ~30% of the combined company. - I feel that’s a lot of Marvell to hand over. 3. I think the strategy is much better than the reaction. - $MRVL are essentially buying the part of the optical link that survives the move to CPO which is a pretty smart hedge on their own DSP franchise. - Marvell announced Inphi around 6 years ago (~$10B in cash + stock), and that deal built the core of MRVL's optics business. - This is basically the same move just one layer down, from DSP to laser, stacked on Celestial AI. - Probably a good signal that Marvell are running the same optics playbook again? 4. Dilution. - $MRVL trades on about 52x run rate EPS. - $LITE is about 60x on its FQ1 guide at tonight's AH price and about 70x with a 30% premium. - That's ~15% dilutive to Marvell's run-rate EPS (my rough napkin math number) assuming a 30% premium, ~$17.5B of new debt at ~5%, and the rest in stock at $228. (Again, very rough numbers). - It only turns accretive if Lumentum keeps outgrowing Marvell at today's guided rates (+24% q/q vs +15%) for another five or six quarters. - I think that's achievable while the laser shortage lasts, but I feel the whole deal ends up being a bet on how long that is. 5. Fewer lasers on the open market. - If LITE's output gets prioritised for $NVDA and Marvell's own modules, everyone else buying LITE EMLs and CW lasers gets tighter allocation. - I think that's bullish for laser pricing at $COHR and for other laser sources like $SIVE (lol). - Feels like the module makers that depend on LITE lasers are the quiet losers. 6. Channel conflict. - Marvell is the leading DSP supplier to 800G/1.6T module makers, and LITE already sells its own modules through Cloud Light. - I think Innolight and Eoptolink start shifting DSP share to $AVGO and $CRDO? - I feel hyperscalers will push harder to second-source lasers from $COHR.

Investor Letters

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MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy &amp; Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
Value Investors Club

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

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