NYSE
MCD
20 stories
$175B Market cap · 2026-10-23
I think $MCD has a better shot of finding a bottom near these levels than $NKE does. People still need to eat. MCD, while not healthy, is still a popular go-to for relatively cheap food (I know its not as cheap as it once was - but its all relative). And MCD still has durable unit growth to point to. Don't think they have brand issues nearly as severe as Nike does. Not advice. Just my 2c.
At current rates and capital being consumed by AI, cant see the appetite from PE to pencil this out, let alone get the financing in place. There are only two other restaurant chains larger by market cap and that is $MCD which would be over 30% over their current market cap. And would be almost 50% of the other, $SBUX. So no, and markets not buying it either
Time to go long $MCD https://t.co/UbQaNOaeiH
@brianjrobben I mention this possibility as a reason for why it sold down too. I don't think 8% returns are bad for $MCD, but yea, it's not obviously good here. At the same time i'm a bit torn given i am short many resturants this idea maybe is a bit of an idea to balance my book a bit.
@SolutionOrganic There are other reasons, beyond the return to buy it. But my base case is closer to 8% here. But there are reasons for instance that if inflation rise or rates increase, i think bonds would suffer more than $MCD and $otis at this valuation if you look out 1 year
I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.
i went long $otis and $MCD this week. i'm not really expecting anything spectacular, maybe 6% returns from these ideas, hoping for 8%+. but i think after this drawdown they present decent risk/rewards in a case where interest rates and or inflation continue to worsen. $OTIS did well during the great recession 08/09. -6% organic sales drop, op profit down only 1.2%. Valuable asset in that sense, even though the upside is capped a bit here as things are slowing down for it globally. This is not a bullet proof scenario that they do well in the next recession, stock could still drop 40%.
I'm not very interested in buying $MCD because I think they've lost their core competency, which is being efficient. Their product now costs a lot and isn't delivered nearly as quickly as Chick-fil-A.
McDonald's CEO expects high inflation, flat traffic are not going away for restaurant industry $MCD https://t.co/ZIgM3fUPpK
"displaying advertising for other companies on its digital drive-thru order boards as part of a pilot" Why McDonald's is following Walmart and Amazon into the advertising business $MCD https://t.co/eW0y5UCUnw
McDonald’s Pledges $8.5 Billion in Investments to Help Franchisees $MCD https://t.co/PoTrgnrK0A
new $MCD low. -6% today
I think $MCD will be ok.
How much would $MCD rally if they changed CEO....capX cycles are not tings investors want to get in front of, and plenty of affordability issues but feels like a new CEO would be given more grace on developing the value menu and reinvigorating the franchisee base then the current team
McDonald’s trades at $248 versus a $309.29 intrinsic-value estimate as its U.S.
Future Stack Investment 3 clicks$MCD traded at 15x PE in 2012, when just 81% of stores were franchised. Today 95% are franchised, the balance sheet is twice as levered and they have already raised prices far faster than competitors. Is this a table pounding idea at 19x NTM pe? https://t.co/whFq0xVa5y
When does McDonald’s $MCD become a buy? I estimate $100 billion of real estate here on a $180 billion market cap and $220 billion enterprise value. Trades at like 15x EBITDA. I usually look at small companies but some of these larger ones are looking interesting. https://t.co/RnRauvu28K
Someone just sent me a brief slide deck on $MCD and it made me realize that I never, I mean never hear anyone talk about it on this platform. Not even @jeffmacke mentions $MCD at his 3:45AM Denny's sessions and he likes to keep everyone on their toes about monster consumer franchises that receive little investor attention in this tech driven era. It did remind me that Ron Dottin called the bottom in this stock in late 2002 after $MCD went through 3-CEOs in a few years (one of which who died) and the company was seemingly in shambles. The stock went up 5x in 5-years. That was back when that meant something. On paper, $MCD looks like the least interesting setup (long or short) I've seen in a really long time.
Restaurant operators reported improving traffic, accelerating unit growth and higher advertising spend, while wage inflation ran 4-5% and…
McDonald’s investor day framed digital loyalty scale, delivery and AI-driven offer personalization as drivers of incremental restaurant…
Letters that discuss MCD.
Companies the stories above are also about, besides MCD.
