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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $11B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@convequity 5 clicks

Convequity on X

AI models are now writing the kernels that made CUDA so hard to leave, and we think this breaks another part of $NVDA's moat. Kernels are the code that tells a chip how to carry out each basic step an AI model repeats, and how well that code is written decides how fast the model runs. Nvidia prebuilt a huge range of these through CUDA. Anyone building their own chip had to write that software from scratch, which was slow, hard and a big reason to think twice before starting a custom-chip project. OpenAI showed at Hot Chips in August that this is changing. On Jalapeño, its Broadcom ($AVGO) built chip, an internal version of Codex wrote attention and mixture-of-experts kernels that ran 1.5 to 1.8x faster than ones written by human experts. Within about three months of getting its first working chips, OpenAI had three open-weight models running on Jalapeño, even though none of them was designed for it. Our view: if AI can write the kernels, the software barrier that held back custom chips gets much lower, and we expect more companies to start their own chip projects. Investors still do not pay enough attention to that consequence. Deeper dive available at Convequity.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Have to give credit the squeeze in software is remarkable, they didn't even stop buying them with semis up n the open. Stocks like $MNDY flying 8% yesterday, $APPN up over 8% today (30% in a week after Barclays remained underweight with a price target roughly 40% current) after their closest comp reported very disappointing earnings and warned of demand and a restructuring.....truly incredible. Starting to give the $GRAL/ $TXG/ $TWST type manic move from a few weeks ago
@convequity 6 clicks

Convequity on X

We sold TSMC ($TSM) earlier this year and are staying out, despite strong demand for its leading-edge chips. Our view is that investors may be too confident that leadership in shrinking transistors will keep earning the same share of industry profits as more performance gains come from stacking circuits, connecting chips and integrating optics. Logic folding could also make older manufacturing processes more competitive, which would weaken the pricing power that TSMC's leading-edge investments depend on. In 2009 TSMC's leadership initially rejected advanced packaging as low-margin work before being persuaded otherwise. Together with today's cautious approach to expanding capacity, we read that as a deeply risk-averse culture. That discipline protects returns. It can also leave TSMC slow to back technologies that challenge its existing business, and by the time their value is clear, other suppliers may have secured the key customer relationships.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 7 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.2B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 9 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $631B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 9 clicks

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