Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Back to today

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Four of BWX Technologies’ $BWXT six top executives took their current roles in 2025, but all four were promoted from inside the company. $BWXT’s 2030 plan depends most on the executives below: → Rex Geveden (President and CEO): CEO since 2017 after joining as COO in 2015. Previously an EVP at Teledyne Technologies $TDY and 17 years at NASA, where he was COO. → Mike Fitzgerald (CFO): CFO since July 2025, interim from May 2025. Joined in 2022 as chief accounting officer; previously at MorganFranklin Consulting and Deloitte. → Joe Miller (President, Government Operations): Since June 2025. Served on the submarine USS Norfolk, joined $BWXT in 2011 as an engineer, and ran Advanced Technologies before taking over the segment. → John MacQuarrie (President, Commercial Operations): More than 28 years at $BWXT, and more than 30 in the nuclear industry. → Kevin McCoy (Chief Nuclear Officer): Moved from Government Operations president in June 2025 to help speed up Columbia- and Virginia-class production. Retired vice admiral and former commander of Naval Sea Systems Command. → Kate Kelly (President, Advanced Technologies): Has run Advanced Technologies, home to Pele, BANR, and TRISO (its microreactor and fuel programs), since June 2025, after joining $BWXT in 2012. Several senior roles turned over in 2025 and 2026: → CFO: Robb LeMasters stepped down in May 2025 and stayed on as a special adviser; Fitzgerald replaced him. → General counsel: Ronald Whitford stepped down on November 4, 2025, and Toby Smith, previously corporate secretary at elevator maker Otis Worldwide $OTIS, replaced him. The 8-K says the exit wasn’t tied to “any legal issue or any disagreement.” → Strategy: Rik Geiersbach, previously head of strategy and corporate development for the defense unit of Boeing $BA, joined as chief strategy officer in September 2025. → Nuclear Operations Group: Retired Rear Admiral Howard Markle now runs the naval reactor plants in place of Gary Camper, with no release announcing the change. $BWXT’s board includes Adm. John Richardson, the former Chief of Naval Operations and former director of Naval Reactors.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

85.5% of the BWX Technologies $BWXT stock insiders have sold in the open market since January 2025 came from CEO Rex Geveden. All 14 open-market transactions since then were sales, totaling 129,322 shares and $20.1M. Geveden accounts for 110,625 of the shares and $17.2M, in two phases: 1) Discretionary sales: 45,625 shares at $107.40 on February 26, 2025, and 25,000 at $179.00 on August 6, 2025, both two days after an earnings release and neither under a 10b5-1 plan (a pre-set trading plan). 2) Plan sales: On August 11, 2025, five days after the second sale, he adopted a 10b5-1 plan to sell up to 40,000 shares through August 14, 2026. He sold 10,000 shares/quarter under the plan, at $197.90, $203.26, $204.81, and $172.50, using up all 40,000. He still holds 192,491 shares directly ($28.0M at $145.70). The last two 10-Qs show no new plans adopted in H1 2026, and the Q3 10-Q, due with results on November 2, will show whether he adopted another plan after the first expired. The other eight sales, by seven executives and directors, totaled 18,697 shares and $2.9M. Most of this selling carries little signal. The other insiders’ $2.9M is small, and Geveden’s 40,000 plan shares were scheduled in August 2025. His two discretionary sales matter more. They totaled 70,625 shares ($9.4M) outside any plan, and including the plan sales, he’s sold about a third of his shares since February 2025. But both came right after $BWXT reported earnings, not ahead of them, at $107.40 and $179.00, well below the $238.42 peak. So the selling isn’t a warning sign, but with no insider buying during the drop, insiders aren’t signaling a bottom.
@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

AI labs are paying to close the gap on malware binaries their best models still can’t read. A ransomware nanocap I wrote up last month is now training its own model to read them, after data labeling companies approached its team. Even with far more capable models today, OpenAI and other top AI labs still pay experts to write and grade the problems their models get wrong. And that’s where data labeling companies play a role. They recruit experts in fields where models still make mistakes, like coding, finance, and medicine, and turn what those experts know into graded examples for the labs to train on. Here are just some of the valuations of the largest AI data labeling companies: → Scale AI: Valued at over $29B after $META paid $14.3B for a 49% stake in June 2025. → Surge AI: Was in talks to raise at a $25B valuation in July 2025. → Mercor: Was in talks to raise at a $20B valuation in July 2026. One of the skills the labs need help with is reading malware, the malicious software hackers use to break into or lock up computers. Malware often arrives as a binary, a compiled program in machine code, and many are obfuscated, or scrambled to hide their purpose. In August 2026, researchers led by Columbia University released SRE-Bench, a test of AI models on 262 binaries, and concluded that reverse engineering, or figuring out what a binary does, “remains largely unsolved.” According to Vals AI’s SRE-Bench leaderboard, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra claims the top spot, fully solving 56.9% of the binaries. But GPT-6 Astra still can’t fully solve the other 43.1%. Data labeling companies are now recruiting malware experts to train the labs’ models. Scale AI, for example, is hiring a product manager to build a cybersecurity product line, with “malware and binary analysis” among the skills it covers. Mercor also pays security experts $200-250/hour to evaluate AI-generated analyses, preferring people with reverse engineering or binary analysis backgrounds. That demand for malware skills has now reached the ransomware nanocap I wrote up last month. Its CEO said in a new interview that data labeling companies have asked the company to help label what each malware binary does, like whether it’s secretly encrypting files. Its software copies the encryption keys ransomware creates during an attack, so its engineers can build a decryptor (a program that reverses the encryption) and recover a victim’s files without paying the ransom. So is a company the market values at under $10M on track to be acquired by, or partner with, an AI lab or data labeling company? Or is binary analysis another AI plan that misses its targets, like the AI decryptor builder it has pitched since 2023? That's what I talk about in my ~3,500-word company update: https://t.co/IGkfgBX5hR
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Excluding medical isotopes, commercial power revenue at BWX Technologies $BWXT nearly tripled, from ~$400M in 2023 to ~$1.1B expected in 2026. $BWXT’s commercial segment is growing much faster than its government segment, driven by (1) Ontario rebuilding its reactors, (2) Canada’s plan for new ones, and (3) the U.S. push for new AP1000 reactors. Its commercial backlog more than doubled to $1.6B. Kinectrics, a Toronto-based nuclear engineering and testing firm acquired in May 2025, explains part of the jump. Commercial revenue grew 72% in Q2 2026, or 33% excluding the acquisition. In Ontario, utilities are rebuilding reactors to run for decades longer. $BWXT is building 48 steam generators for Ontario Power Generation’s (OPG) Pickering refurbishment, part of more than CAD$1B (~$700M) of contracts. The same contracts cover the reactor pressure vessel for the first BWRX-300 at OPG’s Darlington station, a 300 MWe small modular reactor (SMR) designed by GE Vernova Hitachi. The 10-K calls $BWXT “the only commercial heavy nuclear component manufacturer in North America.” Notably, its Cambridge, Ontario plant is turning out more than 1.5 steam generators/month vs. the 1/month its schedule requires, per $BWXT’s Investor Day on September 29, 2026. Beyond refurbishments, Canada’s June 2026 nuclear strategy calls for “up to ten new large-scale reactors,” with two under construction by 2035 and five more planned or under development by 2040. $BWXT already has licensing and early engineering contracts for the large reactors planned by OPG and Bruce Power, the private operator of Ontario’s Bruce nuclear station. John MacQuarrie, president of Commercial Operations, estimated Canada’s new-build market at CAD$120-150B (~$84-105B) at Investor Day. Slide 31 shows $BWXT’s potential revenue per new reactor: → CANDU (Canada’s heavy-water reactor design): $350-700M per reactor. → AP1000 (Westinghouse’s large U.S. design): Low hundreds of millions of dollars. → SMRs: $50-100M.

Investor Letters

All letters

HBM: High-Bandwidth Mistake

HBM’s economic, thermal and power costs will drive a 90% volume drop from peak within 7-10 years, while DRAM stocks remain cyclical.

MU $1T
Irrational Analysis

SoFi: DCF Valuation

SoFi's DCF values shares at $18, forecasting adjusted net revenue growth from 30% in 2026 to 3.5% by 2035 as it scales its digital bank…

SOFI $18B
Hated Moats

Adobe Deep Dive

Adobe trades at 14x earnings after a 65% decline, with AI, Canva and Figma threatening subscriptions, customer acquisition and…

ADBE $98B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 107

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 52 of 235

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

88 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.