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Friday, September 18, 2026

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@negligible_cap

Negligible Capital on X

*PALO ALTO'S ARORA EXPLORED ACQUIRING DATADOG: INFORMATION $DDOG currently a $80B company "Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora has never shied away from deals, acquiring more than 40 companies in the eight years since he took the helm of the world’s biggest standalone cybersecurity firm. But over the past 18 months, Arora’s appetite for acquisitions has reached a new fever pitch as he expanded the company’s products to handle new AI threats as well as capture more revenue from existing customers. For instance, he explored acquiring Datadog, which sells software that helps businesses identify security threats and monitor how cloud applications perform, and Okta, which helps companies ensure workers have access to the right systems, according to two people with knowledge of the situation."
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Deliveries from a teetering on insolvency Lucid is the savior for $UBER? ill take the under 0, 100 or 500 lucid AVs for Uber will not change the incumbency problem for UBER. They will now have to share the market of ride share, and ultimately last mile delivery that they currently dominate with Waymo, Tesla, Zoom (Amazon) in addition to many other players. These are well financed players that can use their mobility solution as part of a broader consumer bundle (not uberone, but incorporated into Prime). Removing the cost of drivers in the equation will dramatically lower the cost and likely the gross profit dollars available to Uber in a now hyper competitive market with companies that dwarf their capital base to run them out with subsidies, bundling and marketing (the same tactics uber used a decade ago to squeeze out smaller players). Their advantage of mindshare currently will be eroded by price and Uber does not control their own tech (bad for their economic model v competitors), is behind and will remain behind in terms of tech due to their inability to fund AI/AV at the same level as their new competitors. The concept Uber will win from fragmentation of AVs and being the app consolidator is going to be very difficult to play out. The regulatory hurdles, and costs of being 6 months behind and almost as safe at a higher price is not going to be a collection of vehicles attractive to users overtime, nor will their privellaged position as the app you open with little consideration to book a ride. And in an agent world, you wont pull up an app you'll ask book me the cheapest ride to the airport (and Uber wont win that box as discussed, app mindshare and learned behavior is meaningless) Uber won't be able to invest or subsidize their rides to stay relevant with Waymo/Tesla/Amazon for very long. Uber and their management team missed the boat (ironically by winning short term profits and street fanfare in cutting all of their AV investments several years ago) and the risk is not they stay in second and you melt the ice cube of cash flows here, this is existential like the sony walkman when the iPod arrived. So keep hoping for Lucid and the Saudis to come, it won't matter in the end. There is a reason it has underperformed and now trades in line with Software (recent move lines up with squeeze in SMH).

Investor Letters

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/18/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers organized retail crime, Home Depot’s centralized operating missteps under Bob Nardelli, and research updates on…

HD $305B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Deep Dive: Grab Holdings ($GRAB)

Grab generates 53% of revenue from delivery, 36% from mobility and 10% from financial services, using its Southeast Asian marketplace to…

GRAB $11B
Rebound Capital 1 click

Power Semiconductors: The Follow-Up

STMicroelectronics, Navitas and Wolfspeed offer contrasting power-semiconductor cases tied to NVIDIA’s 800V AI data-center architecture,…

STM $47B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 1 click

Copart 4Q26 Business Update

Copart's U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5% in 4Q26, largely from one customer loss, while international insurance units rose 11.2% and…

CPRT $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

Why I Think Uber Is Too Cheap

Uber trades at 14.5 times trailing free cash flow, while robotaxi competition and a Delivery Hero acquisition test its growth and leverage…

UBER $145B
M&M Capital

A2Gold: Research Note

A2Gold's McIntosh drilling found 0.23 g/t gold over 65.5m, 370m southwest of the existing resource, and extended mineralization 86m…

KGC $34B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LII

Dell’s AI-server demand and Microchip’s data-center components lead updates on Cirrus Logic and STMicroelectronics, alongside a weekly…

DELL $366BSTM $47B
Monte Independent Investment Research
ZM · long

Zoom Communications INC

Zoom Communications (ZM) is presented as a long investment idea.

ZM $27B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

GLP-1 winners and losers

GLP-1 drugs are gaining traction across Asia as Chinese developers advance candidates and Indian generics slash prices, reshaping prospects…

NVO $175B
Asian Century Stocks

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