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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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Intel Custom ASICs?

Intel’s custom ASIC business more than doubled last quarter as it pursues hyperscaler demand, AI accelerators and a stronger Intel Foundry.

INTC $317BQCOM $185B
Chipstrat

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

My thesis is very narrow. It's also no longer speculation when it shows up in reported earnings. HBM is a very large component cost in an AI server and not what I'm arguing. There's also many bottlenecks outside of memory. An obvious example is $AXTI InP substrates, where not securing enough capacity (where cost is in hundreds of millions) would trigger ceilings to competitor optical programs. And we'd likely see accelerated procurement patterns into 2027 where capacity is hard to scale.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

The most interesting lesson Jensen Huang taught me And gave PTSD to Google executives over from his leadership at $NVDA: Was that if a critical material can be bought out for spare change eg. ~$400m (FY2028 Photonics-SOI revenue forecast for $SOI) And trigger tens of billions in economic impact to competitors for not securing supply: We're going to see game theory bottleneck supply procurement actually accelerate upstream through 2027, with or without him. I see Morgan Stanley's list highlighting CCL, ABF, PCBs, optical module components as interesting. However; I'd put it through my own narrower lens, especially focusing on smaller component cost chokepoints + bottlenecks that doesn't cost much to secure capacity over. Deleveraging/negative sentiment is indiscriminately moving the theme up and down together, so hard to argue individual fundamentals at this point. Reflecting on 2026, I also prob need to be more selective of companies entering 2027: But there's going to be a lot of outsized opportunities in bottlenecks... as new architectures like NPO/CPO emerge across the ecosystem.

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Do You Trust Apple?

Apple’s HomeView strategy ties Siri, privacy and smart-home control to consumer trust in its vision for the home.

AAPL $5.2T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 3 clicks

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

SMTC $11B
CV's Substack 14 clicks

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