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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Little rant, but to show you how rampant deleveraging has become: - $CIFR is worth 44% LESS than when they announced their initial $GOOGL / $AMZN colo deals. - $AAOI is now ~ the same price BEFORE they secured major hyperscaler orders, raised $1.6B for capacity expansion and gave their suprising initial -> $378M+ projection -> ~$471M revenue forecast. - $ESMT ($2B MC) is the perfect example representing the memory sector. B-BUT AI NAMES ARE NOT PROFITABLE??? Q3 Earnings: $526.2M gross profit, $330M net income. To give you a comparison of what that looks like, the net income of $CRWD ($251B MC) was literally $5.3M. $NOW ($113B MC) was $277M. $TSLA ($1.5T) was $787M. Different industries/durability, but if we care about what's actually hitting the balance sheet: ESMT is sitting on ~$937M in net assets ($740M net cash, $278M inventory, etc), so EV goes down to $1.2B ish. Annualized P/E: 1.6x... People keep saying "Peak Earnings", "Cyclical", "no moat" but who in the world would want to build an old ass DDR2 line + fab and qualify it? From ESMT commentary, we'll likely see ASP hikes Q4 to make up for potential consumer demand dropping. And further supply tightening with Samsung/Micron discontinuing DDR2/DDR3 lines. Winbond was leaving DDR2 lines to pursue higher end memory. People keep saying China, but even Gigadevice was leaving DDR3 to pursue higher end memory. "DDR3's share of our DRAM revenue will continue to decline until we eventually stop selling DDR3 products."Nanya discontinued DDR2 lines few days ago. This is while majority of ESMT revenue comes from DDR2/DDR3. In ~3 quarters of constant earnings, ESMT would have more assets than their entire MC. Who is going to stop buying $40 DLink cameras if their $3 memory cost goes to $3.5? $MU / Samsung / $SKHY / $SNDK share similar parallels where durability is contractually enforced via take/pay LTAs with price floors. But markets are pretending that it just won't happen, despite Samsung already being the most profitable company in the world. Markets should care about how much FCF is actually hitting the balance sheets, but are just indiscriminately selling off everything now. But continue rotating capital into 47x P/E companies like Walmart or 180x forward P/E names like $CRWD.
@majgeoinvesting 1 click

Maj Soueidan on X

Excerpts from our morning email on $BRM.V and Hammond Manufacturing ( $HMMAF) BRM was clearly the best company I met at the @PlanetMicroCap Toronto conference last week. Whenever anyone asked me the question of who I liked the best at the conference, one stock came out of my mouth. It was BRM. Today’s record quarter supports this opinion and explains why we recently added it to our model portfolio platform. Biorem continues to display operating leverage, with revenue up 48% while EPS more than doubled… The Hammond Manufacturing story is just another example of how one of the best Multi Bagger factors to monitor is companies going through capacity expansions. This is especially true for those that are considered to be value traps trading at deep value levels because investors have lost faith in management’s commitment to shareholder-friendly capital allocation initiatives. We saw that happen with $MUEL before it rose 10x, and now we’re seeing it happen with Hammond Manufacturing…
@kevin__mak 1 click

Kevin Mak on X

$CMPS No change to my position here, still ~10% of my book. Assuming reports are right, Usona's filing was sooner than I expected, and the timing is probably because they filed without durability data. CMPS has announced on earnings that they will file within the next 2 weeks. I think both have a very high chance of getting approved, and given they both have CNPV's, the approvals should be within 2 weeks of each other (FDA may just do both on the same day?). Usona filing and getting approved was always likely, so the reaction on Monday is odd. Even though they filed earlier than I expected, it doesn't change the long term competitive structure of the market. Sell side notes share my opinion that Usona still has many issues to resolve to be competitive- and there's room in the market for them to coexist. Excited to see the approvals on the very near time horizon and we can start seeing the commercialization steps take form. My guess is stock price reactions are just reflecting how jittery the markets are these days. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds a long position in CMPS. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information.

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