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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Agility Robotics merger is now approved! $AGLT is expected to begin trading November 5th, following the November 4 closing... As the first US pure-play humanoid company! The company is backed by $NVDA, $AMZN, Foxconn, Softbank, and others... to automate human work in warehouses and manufacturing. ~61.48% of the 41.4M public shares were redeemed (~25.45M shares), leaving ~15.95M public shares tradeable. Given heavily reduced share count, as a warning, the stock may experience significant volatility. Disclosure: Not a recommendation, purchased $CCXI shares today after seeing the news and currently hold a position.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The bitcoin miner turned AI data center developer, $DGXX, is at $2.13/share, down 46.3% since my August 16 update. Since then, it got a $200M debt commitment, syndicated by $GS, to finish its Alabama AI data center, and said Phase 1 (December) and Phase 2 (March 2027) remain on target. That’s good news if the loan closes (expected within 90 days), since I said in August it would decide whether $DGXX can fund the rest of the build with debt or has to keep selling stock. CEO Michel Amar told Frank Curzio of Curzio Research in a November 2 interview that debt financing “seems to be a little bit scarce these days” and has slowed $DGXX down. Regardless, he said all the equipment for both phases is already bought, with the chillers installed. With ~$135M of cash as of October 13 and no debt at June 30, $DGXX’s EV is ~$81M. Amar also said he wants $DGXX at $500M+ of yearly revenue within 36 months, with its leased data center business earning ~60% EBITDA margins and ~25% cash flow margins after debt service. As of August, only ~$140M of the $250-300M of ARR it targets by Q3 2027 was contracted. $DGXX has used $174.5M of its $175M ATM program, and its share count has been flat at 101.4M since August 14. So if the loan falls through, selling more stock would take a new filing. The October 13 release also says $DGXX sold no ATM shares in Q3, though its Q2 10-Q shows it sold 2.85M after June 30 at an average of $3.95, well below the stock’s $5.45 close on June 30. So I’d track dilution through the share count in the Q3 10-Q, not management’s comments. Its November 2 proxy also asks shareholders to expand its stock award pools to 20.3M shares from 16.3M (20% of shares outstanding), with 11.9M free for new grants, after Amar and his son, President Alec Amar, were awarded a combined $19.5M in 2025 (~9% of today’s market cap), mostly in stock and options. That’s more dilution than I’d like after the share count rose 46% this year, to 101.4M from 69.4M at the end of 2025, and the proxy would also let the board raise the RSU pool 10%/year from 2028 without another shareholder vote. Both Amars have bought $166K of stock in the open market since August, most recently 20,000 shares at $2.76 by Michel Amar on October 14, but that’s small next to the $19.5M they were awarded in 2025. Q3 results come out November 13.

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MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
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