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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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BDC on X

Jassy said that $AMZN capex will increase meanigfully in 2027, which we know is off a base of $220B in 2026. Before the AI build, the average annual capex increase was ~$9B. A "meaningful" increase in 2027 would be $90-100B or so, putting 2027 capex around $315B. Given that OCF has also increased nicely, approaching $200mn annually exiting this year, and +34%. At what point does the story, or will it, become about 2028 and 2029 positive FCF inflection? Even if capex stays high (say $300B which is crazy but who knows), assuming OCF growth continues which seems reasonable, we start to look at substantial FCF most likely hitting in 2028. There's a path to $450B in OCF (2029/2030) (less $300mn in capex equalling $150B in FCF. It's also possible that capex intensity of the build phase steps DOWN, just given the size of this spend. What if 2030 capex is back to $220B? We are looking at run rate FCF of $230B annually which is $23 in fcf/share. This is the map that Jassy and Bezos see. Its a long term plan and it does not match with the short term-focused market. But if they execute, the map is highly compelling and does justify today's spend cycle. Note that the highest FCF ever for AMZN prior to this cycle was $26B. So we are looking to spend for 3-4 years to 9-10x FCF on the other side.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

$AAOI signs $194.4M/year contract with Yuunan Germanium. This is for 2027 alone, with a 5 year contract. Given an implied total of ~$970M in InP substrates over 5 years (before price hikes) Hmm just some thoughts: - AOI laser capacity expansion seems bigger than what’s disclosed based on procurement patterns? 180K wafers seems like an extreme amount compared to what’s needed for lasers within their own transceivers… if they can consume all of that So maybe we’ll hear about a new UHP laser contracts in earnings, after $LITE announced a $5B contract. - read through on $AXTI is positive, given they’ll probably be #1 in InP substrates manufacturing scale in the future + have contracts with $LITE and $COHR. - positive AOI was able to secure capacity during the bottleneck More spend is probably the boogeyman in the AI trade, but it’s a good signal for earnings.

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

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SE $48B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 4 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

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