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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW of geothermal power by 2030.

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 2 clicks

From X

@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

$PESI results showing great stabilization with the key line being: "Results were held back by customer-directed changes in treatment protocols on a Hanford-related waste stream, which required performance testing and final approvals that were not provided until late August. Processing did not reach full operations until September, pushing revenue out of the quarter." Despite this - EBITDA improved from -$6M in Q2 to -$3M in Q3. Most importantly - backlogs rose 25% quarter over quarter and Services gross margin nearly doubled. I would expect management to provide color on the call that Q4 could potentially be break-even which I think will be a seminal moment for the company (and the shares). With the Hanford progress (and with the elections being over), the odds of grouting at East beginning sooner vs later have skyrocketed. I think it's likely just up from here in regards to the share price. Wouldn't be surprised to see this back over $20 soon. It's a long-term hold for DOMO Capital as this should be a $100+ stock once Hanford fully ramps.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The companies spending the most on AI are paying for more of it with debt. To understand whether debt-funded spending like this is indicative of a bubble, we can look at William Quinn and John Turner’s bubble triangle, which says a bubble needs three sides: marketability (how easily an asset trades), money and credit, and speculation. The AI boom arguably has all three sides: → Marketability: Index funds held 52% of U.S. long-term fund assets at the end of 2025, up from 19% in 2010, and they buy each stock in proportion to its size, so the biggest AI stocks get the most of every new dollar. → Money and credit: $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN and $META are on track to spend more than $730B on capex in 2026, up from $410B in 2025, and their Q3 reports didn’t change that. $AMZN still expects ~$220B, and $META narrowed its range to $135-145B. Investors are borrowing more too, with margin debt at $1.48T in September, just below June’s record $1.50T. → Speculation: AI startups raised 82.7% of the money U.S. venture capital firms invested in 2026 through September, a record share, up from 65.4% in 2025. So more of the private money is betting on a single theme. $META’s also raising money by selling stock. Its October 27 pricing term sheet shows it sold 40M shares at $625 through forward sale agreements, plus $12.5B of mandatory convertible preferred stock, which together bring in $37.4B of net proceeds once the forward sales settle by November 2027.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Pretty darn good quarter for Sinclair $SBGI. Record one. $136 million of political revenue and $455 million political for the full year of 2026. They smoked 2024 Presidential year, with only $405 million in that period. Not spinning off ventures will hold this back and need clarity on Nexstar/TEGNA merger before anything transformational gets done here. I don't think any big broadcasting deals going to happen now with Dems sweeping. Pretty good look through for other broadcasters.

Investor Letters

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Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and…

SPGI $136BICE $96B
Global Outperformers 3 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $5.9B
Cannibal Stocks 2 clicks

The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

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