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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of store-based grocery fulfillment.

DASH $79BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The FTC and eight states sued Toast $TOST, the restaurant software and payments company, on October 29, the day after its President and CFO Elena Gomez gave notice. The complaint alleges $TOST: → Enrolled restaurants in subscription add-ons they didn’t agree to. → Charged an undisclosed early termination fee of $150 for each month left on a contract. → Added a $0.99 fee to some online orders over $10 from September 2021 to July 2023, money that went to Toast rather than the restaurants. → Required 30 days’ written notice to cancel without clearly disclosing it, and treated a cancellation as a default on any Toast Capital loan, making the full balance due at once. → Advertised “24/7/365” support that customers say they couldn’t reach. The 10-Q says $TOST will “vigorously defend its interests” and can’t yet estimate a possible loss. CEO Aman Narang argued on the Q3 call that ROSCA (the Restore Online Shoppers’ Confidence Act, a federal law on online subscriptions) was never meant for negotiated business contracts: “If ROSCA were to apply to B2B custom-negotiated contracts in a B2B context, it would have huge implications for really the whole industry and business contracts in general.” He also said $TOST had been cooperating with the FTC “over the past year” before it sued, and that “how we settle the suit” won’t change Toast’s long-term path. With $1.89B of cash and marketable securities and no debt, $TOST can afford a fine, so the bigger risk to me is an injunction that could possibly change how it sells, prices, and cancels contracts.
@convequity

Convequity on X

If $SPCX makes its own chips at Terafab, our model has a gigawatt of orbital compute costing about $10 billion to build, down from about $33 billion with purchased GPUs. In orbit, the silicon decides the returns more than Starship does. This comes from our SPCX Special View valuation model. It estimates how fast capacity comes online, limited by equipment supply and launches. The first gigawatt reaches orbit in 2027. Our Base case buys GPUs. Chips and racks are about 80% of the cost, launch about 11%. Each gigawatt earns $40 billion a year renting out compute through 2028, falling to $20 billion from 2031 as GPU-hour prices fall. Terafab is Musk's planned chip factory. In our Full Terafab case, chips and racks cost one-eighth as much, about a third of the total, and launch becomes the largest item at 37%. A customer like Anthropic would want its own chips rather than rent SPCX's. Terafab chips would most likely run SPCX's own AI models, sold through an API. We assume that earns 50% more. Over a seven-year satellite life, a gigawatt's net present value is about $88 billion with purchased GPUs, $111 billion renting out Terafab compute, and $172 billion running SPCX's own models. The fleet reaches 140 gigawatts in 2036. Multiplying 140 by $172 billion values SPCX at about $24 trillion. This counts the cost of building and launching the hardware, but not of developing SPCX's own models.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

How magnanimous of Michael Intrator at $CRWV to halt his 10b5-1 stocks sales. Checking filings. Looks like he sold 10MM shares for roughly $1B in gross proceeds (mostly this year). The three founders combined cashed out $3.3B of stock since the IPO. No doubt this stock can be a fantastic trading vehicle given its volatility (250% implied vol into the print), but if you're thinking of this in any longer term context, management already told you what they REALLY think of the business on a longer term horizon....

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $2.3B
Doomberg 4 clicks

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $48B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 4 clicks
AEGXF · long

Aecon Group Inc.

Aecon Group’s long thesis targets 50-80% share-price upside over 6-12 months as the company shifts beyond a complex special situation.

AEGXF $3.9B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Intel Panther Lake Teardown

Intel’s Panther Lake puts 18A PowerVia backside power and RibbonFET GAA transistors into commercial silicon, with logic density similar to…

INTC $309B
SemiAnalysis

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

PRTH $649M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 9 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $18B
Hated Moats 5 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.6T
Net Interest 3 clicks

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