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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of store-based grocery fulfillment.

DASH $79BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The FTC and eight states sued Toast $TOST, the restaurant software and payments company, on October 29, the day after its President and CFO Elena Gomez gave notice. The complaint alleges $TOST: → Enrolled restaurants in subscription add-ons they didn’t agree to. → Charged an undisclosed early termination fee of $150 for each month left on a contract. → Added a $0.99 fee to some online orders over $10 from September 2021 to July 2023, money that went to Toast rather than the restaurants. → Required 30 days’ written notice to cancel without clearly disclosing it, and treated a cancellation as a default on any Toast Capital loan, making the full balance due at once. → Advertised “24/7/365” support that customers say they couldn’t reach. The 10-Q says $TOST will “vigorously defend its interests” and can’t yet estimate a possible loss. CEO Aman Narang argued on the Q3 call that ROSCA (the Restore Online Shoppers’ Confidence Act, a federal law on online subscriptions) was never meant for negotiated business contracts: “If ROSCA were to apply to B2B custom-negotiated contracts in a B2B context, it would have huge implications for really the whole industry and business contracts in general.” He also said $TOST had been cooperating with the FTC “over the past year” before it sued, and that “how we settle the suit” won’t change Toast’s long-term path. With $1.89B of cash and marketable securities and no debt, $TOST can afford a fine, so the bigger risk to me is an injunction that could possibly change how it sells, prices, and cancels contracts.
@convequity

Convequity on X

If $SPCX makes its own chips at Terafab, our model has a gigawatt of orbital compute costing about $10 billion to build, down from about $33 billion with purchased GPUs. In orbit, the silicon decides the returns more than Starship does. This comes from our SPCX Special View valuation model. It estimates how fast capacity comes online, limited by equipment supply and launches. The first gigawatt reaches orbit in 2027. Our Base case buys GPUs. Chips and racks are about 80% of the cost, launch about 11%. Each gigawatt earns $40 billion a year renting out compute through 2028, falling to $20 billion from 2031 as GPU-hour prices fall. Terafab is Musk's planned chip factory. In our Full Terafab case, chips and racks cost one-eighth as much, about a third of the total, and launch becomes the largest item at 37%. A customer like Anthropic would want its own chips rather than rent SPCX's. Terafab chips would most likely run SPCX's own AI models, sold through an API. We assume that earns 50% more. Over a seven-year satellite life, a gigawatt's net present value is about $88 billion with purchased GPUs, $111 billion renting out Terafab compute, and $172 billion running SPCX's own models. The fleet reaches 140 gigawatts in 2036. Multiplying 140 by $172 billion values SPCX at about $24 trillion. This counts the cost of building and launching the hardware, but not of developing SPCX's own models.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

How magnanimous of Michael Intrator at $CRWV to halt his 10b5-1 stocks sales. Checking filings. Looks like he sold 10MM shares for roughly $1B in gross proceeds (mostly this year). The three founders combined cashed out $3.3B of stock since the IPO. No doubt this stock can be a fantastic trading vehicle given its volatility (250% implied vol into the print), but if you're thinking of this in any longer term context, management already told you what they REALLY think of the business on a longer term horizon....
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

There's a lot of news about WT (3036) introducing their first CW DFB laser line card. More significant than people think for medium-long term. For economic impact and what revenue looks like: - $SMTC generated 74% of its revenue through distributors. $AMBA as another example, ~60-70% of their 2026 revenue went through this company. - With WT in specific, if you look at even a large company like $AVGO scaled: -> 13% of Broadcom revenue went through WT in 2020 -> 18% (2021) -> 20% (2022) -> ~21% (2023) -> ~28% (2024) -> now possibly up to ~46% (they stopped naming) Just showing how important the largest distributors in the world become to semi companies. Given how WT chairman attributed rapid growth coming from AI photonics demand (eg. DSPs to optical module makers): It becomes more interesting for a certain company that WT introduced their first CW DFB laser line card during an industry bottleneck.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

The Value Investor's SpaceX ($SPCX) : A Korean Preferred at 0.3x Book. Indrect exposure to SpaceX=~68% of price, Management Says It Wants the Gap Closed. 4% dividend, 4x conservative earnings. Brand advantage in a commodity indsutry. Fundamental Business does not earn from Space X at all 𝘈𝘭𝘴𝘰 𝘒𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘥’𝘴 𝘐 𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘩𝘺, 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘳𝘦𝘦! 𝘈𝘴 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘢𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘐'𝘮 𝘸𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘳𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘳𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 2.

Investor Letters

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Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $48B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 4 clicks

Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $111B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and…

SPGI $136BICE $96B
Global Outperformers 3 clicks

Vistra Deep Dive

Vistra's contracted nuclear fleet benefits from data centers' high, steady load factors, while Amazon and Meta contracts contribute roughly…

VST $44B
CV's Substack
SIRI · long

Sirius Xm Holdings INC

SiriusXM, SIRI, combines a 32% EBITDA margin with 3.6x net leverage and a 16% free-cash-flow margin despite elevated capex.

SIRI $11B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive

Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…

MSFT $4T
Bearhold Research 11 clicks
BE 2026-08-29

Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break

Bloom Energy’s 80x forward earnings valuation relies on concentrated megaprojects, sustained AI data-center power demand and continued…

BE $52B
Valuation Rewind 3 clicks

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