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Wednesday, November 11, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

If ur reading a write-up and they don't include a valuation range, more often than not: 1) They're lying to themselves. E.g. only pitching bull case. "The next 10x." $GRAB a couple years ago. 2) They're lying to you, the reader. E.g. not focusing on bear case enough. "It's asymmetric"... but actual downside if couple thing flops is 60%+. $FLNC just 2-3 months ago. 3) They have no clue and prob conclude by saying "position as small speculative bet" to be in a win-win scenario to gain subs. $CCXI today... Multiple based valuation is the simple/lazy route and easier to defend, yet less practical. Absolute valuations like DCF or Penman REV forces you to think more through scenarios and the business itself, which is what's actually useful because it's more subjective.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Whether AI can run security operations on its own comes down to one question: when an automated action is wrong, who is accountable for finding out what happened and fixing it? Our note borrows two levels from self-driving cars. At L2 the driver answers for mistakes. At L4 the car drives itself, so accountability shifts to the company behind the system. 1. At L2, a third-party AI agent mostly assists. It connects to a security platform over MCP, the protocol that lets an outside AI model pull data from a vendor's platform. It suggests next steps and drafts investigations, while the human and the security platform still hold the wheel. 2. At L4 or L5, the system acts with no human in the loop in the security operations centre. It quarantines a machine, kills a process, revokes access or blocks traffic. Any of those can be wrong. When one is, the customer needs a clear accountable party that will investigate and fix the problem. In our view $PANW can be that party. It is already inside the customer's systems, keeps audit trails, and its own products take those hard-to-reverse actions. AI model labs are poorly placed for that role. On our reading, their terms usually limit what they answer for, so when an outside agent acts wrongly, the customer is left to investigate and fix the problem alone. Outside agents compete most easily for the analyst's workspace, which is L2 work. That makes $PANW better placed than model labs to sell autonomy.

Investor Letters

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Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 4 clicks

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $45B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 5 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $108B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Research update

S&P Global research will assess Platts, Kensho and ratings growth; Benefit Systems’ 72% YTD rally changed its valuation, while Netflix and…

SPGI $138BICE $101B
Global Outperformers 3 clicks

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