SG on X
agree this stand the next few days is pivotal for $RTY $IWM https://t.co/mA1V6mYYrZ
NYSEARCA
IWM
15 stories
$83B Market cap · 2026-09-03
agree this stand the next few days is pivotal for $RTY $IWM https://t.co/mA1V6mYYrZ
@ArgonathCapital $IWM covers the junk and also covers market breadth which I'm bullish on.
My book is usually structurally short breadth (basket shorts, concentrated longs). Currently I've concentrated my shorts a lot in specific areas and have a 8% $IWM + other small cap ETFS long as I'm very worried about a breadth rally.
"The Russell 2000 index, which tracks shares of smaller companies, fell for a fifth-straight week, its longest weekly losing streak since May 2022." $IWM As Yields Surged, Small-Cap Stocks Were Hit Hard https://t.co/71BUJrMnXb
One of those months where $QQQ is outperforming $IWM massively (again) https://t.co/G7XXqhR41M
Adding long exposure (through $IWM and $RSP mainly) makes me feel sick, which backs up my belief that the timing is good to add long exposure.
$TLT negative on the day, $RSP and $IWM retracing their big up moves. This market is wild.
Corporates (spreads are tight, if this gets rly bad spreads should blow out). Long breadth, consumer exposure and small caps through stuff like $IWM, $RSP, $XSHQ, $RSPD. Short the narrow winners like $QQQ, $SMH, $AAPL, $CRWD, $ILMN, $NBIS. Also shorting long crowded bio longs
This is one of my favorite charts. It's amazing how small caps went from modestly overbought to NEARLY VIOLENTLY oversold. The picture below tells the story. In general buying when the percentage of Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average drops below 20 has been a massive driver of returns. Conversely selling when the percentage exceeds 70% has preserved capital. The headline here: We're oversold in small caps following the spike in interest rates and crude oil prices. We're not at a clear buy signal yet, but it's close. $IWM
$HAWK now trading around $17.15, or -34% below its $26 IPO price. Initial lock-up expired last week, but I think it is unlikely many shares will come to market at these prices. $HAWK is also being added to the $IWM. $HAWK continues to have strong defense tech tailwinds, and they now have $500 mm+ of cash on hand. Valuation is now much more attractive and below the $18.86 price of their pre-IPO Series E financing.
@ACapitalLP You forgot to mention $IWM / r1k index inclusion plus tsx60 bc of float cap... $gfl
Thinking more about this, the timing feels increasingly closer: The market concentration is extreme: Mag 7 + $AVGO sits at a combined market cap of $18 Trillion. Contrast that with the entire Mid/Small-Cap universe: S&P 400 (Mid): $3T $MDY S&P 600 (Small): $1.4T $IJR Russell 2000: $2.8T $IWM A 10% shift in allocation ($1.8T) from Big Tech could easily double the market cap of these mid/small-cap indexes. It's not a new insight, but with growing AI bubble nervousness in market participants and rising FED rate cut expectations extending into 2026, the potential for this capital shift is getting compelling. #GreatRotation #SmallCaps #MidCaps #MarketTiming
$SPY vs $IWM https://t.co/5PhVIbpBfq
"Rally of the 2nd Tier": the runner-up is running the show over 6m/3m/1m time periods: • Silver > Gold ( $SLV > $GLD) • ETH > BTC • Small caps > S&P 500 ( $IWM > $SPY) Seeing it occur even in individual stock levels: • $AMD > $NVDA • $EXPE > $BKNG • $LYFT > $UBER What it implies: That breadth + beta has been improving, perhaps in anticipation of rate cuts and overall healthier economy than anticipated. Likely keeps the bull run going for now. Charts below
Much more important than the median is the spread b/ w the cheapest (at 7.4x) and most expensive (at 56x) quintiles on fwd P/E estimates. Valuation dispersion has barely budged w/ recent mkt moves & remains at a record wide gap on par w/ peak of the internet bubble. $SPY $IWM https://t.co/rmzJAcD3tR
Companies the stories above are also about, besides IWM.