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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$now bill is always selling and some people on here seem confused why the stock is down when they look at the numbers he directs you to. Wash away all of his puffery and the underlying business deteriorated - gross profit came in at 10%+ yoy (which I believe is the lowest ever) for the quarter. You can call anything revenue but it's ultimately about the gross profit dollars you bring in + the efficiency of your expense management, which if you look saw increases across the board with profit materially weakening. You can argue intangibles on the COGS but then you need to adjust the light crpo further to exclude all the inorganic revenue helping out in there (which the co did not strip out).....the street is not fooled, these were not great numbers. And swapping revenue to juice AI in a press release while total sales stays on trend is not going to work anymore, as one analyst put it best to Bill "I wanted to just zoom out a little bit and just talk about the momentum you're seeing on the AI ACV side. Gina as you noted, you've raised the guidance twice now to $1.7 billion in revenue. At the same time, if we look at just the broad story of cRPO, we could call it stable, maybe on an organic basis, modestly decelerating, but sort of generally stable. So my high-level question, Bill, is just when do you think the AI momentum will start to translate to overall top line acceleration, cRPO acceleration?" There are very different expectations when a stock doubles in a quarter in-between reporting results.....
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Right now AI diffusion is happening faster in enterprise than in consumer. $MSFT is effectively the only pure play on enterprise AI diffusion. It’s salesforce, FDE and partner ecosystem, and the security, orchestration and governance capabilities of its platform uniquely unlock new AI TAM in traditional conservative enterprises. My prediction that M365 commercial would accelerate to >20% growth may come true next quarter, based on tonight’s guide. Sooner than I expected*. $MSFT will now have Azure and M365, which are 2/3 of revenue, growing >50% and >20%. And both stand a good chance of accelerating through the year: more copilot rollout, consumption pricing, and Autopilot for M365, and more capacity coming online and price increases for Azure. I still think $24-25 EPS is achievable in CY27 which would make $MSFT <22x fwd PE, even after a nice run. *helped by re-segmenting which added GitHub! But I think will be true this year regardless.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

My prediction that M365 commercial would accelerate to >20% growth may come true next quarter, based on tonight’s guide. Sooner than I expected*. Right now AI diffusion is happening faster in enterprise than in consumer. $MSFT is effectively the only pure play on enterprise AI diffusion. It’s salesforce, FDE and partner ecosystem, and the security, orchestration and governance capabilities of its platform uniquely unlock new AI TAM in traditional conservative enterprises. $MSFT will now have Azure and M365, which are 2/3 of revenue, growing >50% and >20%. And both stand a good chance of accelerating through the year: more copilot rollout, consumption pricing, and Autopilot for M365, and more capacity coming online and price increases for Azure. I still think $24-25 EPS is achievable in CY27 which would make $MSFT <22x fwd PE, even after a nice run. *helped by re-segmenting which added GitHub! But I think will be true this year regardless.

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