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Monday, November 9, 2026

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Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Larger AI chip packages are pushing manufacturers toward glass substrates. We regard LPKF Laser & Electronics ($LPKFF) as one of very few suppliers that can make the tiny, closely spaced holes through the glass reliably and in volume. 1. The silicon chips and the organic (resin-based) substrate beneath them expand by different amounts as the package heats and cools. A larger package makes that mismatch harder to manage, raising the risk of warping and damaged connections. Glass expands more like silicon. 2. $NVDA is requiring its Taiwanese and Korean suppliers to deliver glass substrates by 2028. 3. China's BOE is reportedly meeting with Samsung on a glass substrate partnership. 4. Producing these holes in volume is difficult. The holes, called through-glass vias, must be made without cracking the glass and then filled with copper. Our view is that LPKF's process, a laser pulse followed by a chemical etch, is built for that hole-making step. We are watching for its customers to move from development into production.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

$Msft can leverage OAIs IP through 2032, >6yrs, so what would be the point of duplicating all of that R&D along the way, probably not as well? This is a structural efficiency advantage to $MSFT that is unique among leading AI companies. They can sell premium tokens with owner economics without the elevated training cost. That is worthy of a premium multiple. And why they are growing EBIT >20% with positive FCF and no dilution while META is growing EBIT single digits with negative FCF and significant dilution. I like $META and think it can produce a better IRR than $MSFT from here. But the risk premium is logically higher bc of a messier financial profile and the unproven size and business case for consumer AI vs MSFT in the enterprise where unit economics and demand are clearly compelling today. Research intensity will be higher for MSFT far in the future, but by then the rate of model change may decline, and it will have a larger AI business to absorb the cost.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Ahead of 5 Nov, we are watching whether $IREN’s project delivery is reducing cash burn and whether further expansion has suitable funding in place. Longer debt maturities give IREN more time to complete projects and collect cash, reducing the urgency of returning to lenders during an unfavorable market. Its Microsoft GPU financing is closely matched to the associated contract and sits in a separate vehicle with limited recourse to the parent. We want that time used to establish operating cash generation that can support future investment and eventual debt repayment. At depressed valuations, our view is that IREN could provide a partial hedge against slower AI progress. If slower demand growth leads the largest cloud buyers to moderate construction, IREN could gain better access to GPUs and power for projects already sold. Earlier completion would start revenue sooner, and fewer new commitments would reduce the cash absorbed by construction, bringing positive free cash flow forward. This depends on existing contracts remaining sound. A collapse in customer demand or credit quality would, of course, hurt IREN.

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Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 2 clicks

NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click
MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
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