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Monday, November 9, 2026

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Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

From X

@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

A lot of green in AI land today from $NBIS +11.2% to $CRDO +10.8%. Over the past few weeks, financing has been the main pressure point but it seems like we've made some solid progress this week. - $META raised $97.5B, with $60B of that coming through an ATM starting in January. - $SPCX signed a $40B deal for GPU equipment. - $AVGO set up a $63B SPV to fund custom chips for Anthropic, who also eased some fears with their S-1. Feels like the rapid de-grossing over the last few weeks has mostly run its course, however according to JPM, volumes still remain light. Interestingly, GS say that there's evidence today of "increased offense being played across the AI complex". While this is still minimal, it's a notable uptick vs. the past few weeks where risk was near zero. I wonder whether the market decides to pay attention to the upcoming hurdles, or whether it keeps riding the wall of worry higher. I personally still land on some short-term choppiness when you consider how bruised investors have gotten since July + hurdles in the next few days (hyperscaler earnings, FOMC, midterms).
@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

$FLEX looks interesting into the Axiom spin in Q1 2027. I think everyone can agree RemainCo is worth somewhere in the $40s, so the only real disagreement is what value to assign Axiom. You’re getting a cloud and power infrastructure business growing at gangbuster rates (80%+ FY28 revenue growth) that just raised $2bn of convertible preferred from General Catalyst at a $37.5bn EV… Meanwhile, at ~$77, the market is implying Axiom is worth ~$33/share. Some SOTP estimates have it north of $100. Obviously there are legitimate concerns around capex, working capital and FCF conversion, but that’s a pretty enormous disconnect. November 10 Investor Day should be interesting…

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NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 4 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

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