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Monday, November 9, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

We think Amazon ($AMZN) blocks Meta's ($META) Muse shopping agent partly to protect its advertising business, while Shopify ($SHOP) welcomes it to earn payment fees. Amazon cites authorization and security concerns. We also see an advertising business to protect. Amazon earned $68.6 billion in advertising revenue in 2025, including payments from sellers to place their products prominently in front of shoppers. An agent that selects products without taking customers through those sponsored listings could reduce sellers' willingness to pay for them. Amazon still handles payment and delivery, which gives it bargaining power even when an agent chooses the product and places the order. Shopify welcomes Muse through Shop Pay. It can keep earning payment-processing fees when agents complete purchases through its systems, and it has no comparable advertising business to defend. We think shopping agents could favor merchants whose products stand out for quality or features over merchants whose sales depend heavily on paid placement. That could give independent brands another way to reach customers, which would benefit Shopify as more purchases pass through its merchants' stores. Agents and established platforms could still agree to share advertising revenue. We are watching whether agents improve product discovery or simply become another place where sellers pay to be recommended.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

The AI memory squeeze is hitting Android chip suppliers harder than the phone market. Counterpoint says global smartphone shipments fell 20% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the lowest third quarter since 2012. AI data centres are taking more of the memory supply, and higher DRAM and NAND prices left most phone makers short. 1. The fall is in cheaper phones. Xiaomi's shipments fell more than 30%, and OPPO's and vivo's more than 20%, as they cut low-priced models and raised prices. Samsung's fell 3%, and Apple ($AAPL) reached a 22% share, its first third quarter above 20%. 2. Chip suppliers fell further than phone makers. In the second quarter, phone shipments fell 21%, while MediaTek's and Qualcomm's ($QCOM) phone chip shipments each fell more than 30%, per Counterpoint. 3. Qualcomm is exposed too. Counterpoint ties MediaTek's decline to its entry-level and mainstream chips, and Qualcomm's to its Snapdragon 600 and 400 lines. Qualcomm also lost some premium volume as Samsung used its own Exynos 2600 chip in base Galaxy S26 models in some regions. Samsung's Exynos shipments rose in the second quarter. The phone maker that held up best is making more of its own chips. The third-quarter phone data shows the same pattern, so I expect MediaTek's and Qualcomm's phone chip volumes to fall faster than phone shipments again when they report the quarter.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI. $NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up. New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that: - In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a decade, to reach its "ChatGPT moment" - Now, OpenAI's GPT-6 model prompted expectations that a breakthrough could happen "within 1 or 2 years" - He defined that moment as robots being able to complete around 80 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of unfamiliar environments using voice or text commands. - "It's possible that, say, a GPT-7 model released next year could directly crack the problems of embodied intelligence" - "The whole embodied intelligence industry has been shaken up after the release of GPT-6" Just looking at some benchmarks on robotic hand manipulation, "On the bowl task Astra placed the block in 19 of 20 trials, against Fable 5.1's 8 of 20". But for the puzzle task "Astra completed the insertion 2 times in 20 against Fable 5.1's 2 in 20"".. so we're getting there. But going from 2-3 years (potentially to a decade), and compressing that down to 1 or 2 years (to achieve 80%+ of tasks in unfamiliar environemnts) is a significant change in outlook.

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Roblox: Capture This Moment

Roblox’s Q3 FY26 DAUs fell year over year for the first time, while bookings declined 12% to $1.7 billion.

RBLX $35B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $79B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 4 clicks

NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and…

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

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