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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$GTN ~$4.90. Joel Greenblatt always wanted to do an LBO, his way of doing one was finding very leveraged stocks. This is the ultimate public LBO. Gray owns local TV stations: the CBS/NBC/ABC/Fox channel in 117 US markets (~37% of homes), #1 rated in 78 of them. It gets paid three ways: local ads, fees cable and streaming companies pay to carry its channels, and a flood of political ads every other year. It is the most sensitive to political out of any broadcaster. Miller Value Partners’ latest 13F reported 7.24 million shares as of June 30, 2026, worth about $28.8 million at quarter end; the firm had increased the position by roughly 35% from the prior quarter. In recent Q they just pushed debt maturity to 2030 from 2028 ~$500M of equity on ~$6.3B of net debt + preferred. ~6.8x 2-yr avg EBITDA. Consensus FCF: $388M ‘26, $115M ‘27, $450M ‘28, or ~50% a year on average vs the market cap. The record 2026 political year ($630-640M) is going to debt: ~$1B of 10.5% notes refinanced or repurchased, another $175-200M paid down in Q4. Free options: FCC loosening ownership caps (more duopolies, M&A) and a future spectrum sale. $SPCX sensible buyer of part portfolio. Risks: core ads down mid-single digits ex-acquisitions, cord-cutting, and a former Gray VP sees retrans under “severe pressure” after 2028 (Alphasense). At 5.7x leverage the equity is a stub, so it cuts both ways. Miller Value Partners and Bill Miller Thesis: The GTN thesis is that the market was pricing Gray Television as a highly leveraged broadcaster in decline, while underestimating the cash-generating strength and value of its local stations and other assets. Miller Value Partners argued that: Gray’s local stations were often market leaders, giving the company a strong audience and an advantage in political advertising. Political ads, retransmission contract renewals, and growth in digital advertising could lift cash flow. The firm also saw potential in the Assembly production studio and, later, ATSC 3.0. That cash flow could pay down debt; if the market’s pessimism eased, the equity could be worth multiples of its then-current price. They acknowledged the debt and advertising-cycle risks. Their counterpoint was that near-term maturities were limited and that expected cash generation could support deleveraging. The particular forecasts changed over time: the 2023 letter estimated more than $2.5 billion of free cash flow over five years; the 2025 update estimated $2 billion-plus over five to six years. Those were the firm’s projections at the time, not realized results.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

“The next best thing to having your own private securities analyst.” — Peter Lynch on the Value Line Investment Survey It's Saturday, you know what that means. I went through Value Line Small and Mid-Cap because that is more fertile hunting ground evidenced by small cap stocks base rate performance. A Duff & Phelps analysis of CRSP portfolios reports a 20.19% average annual arithmetic return for the smallest decile over 1926–2017, versus 11.19% for the largest. My favorite stock was $GTN, high risk high reward. Joel Greenblatt always wanted to do an LBO because when they work the leverage magnifies your returns. His compromise? Finding highly leveraged public companies. $GTN is just that. 50% FCF yield, highly sensitive to political spend, debt maturities just extended from 2028 to 2030. FCC removing cap limits is free optionality. $SPCX logical buyer of parts of the portfolio. Bill Miller is bullish and has a position that he increased 35% last Q.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

I'm going to give a contrarian take on Neoclouds like $NBIS and say the theme looks compelling after the valuation crash. Since there's a reason why Elon's $SPCX is heavily focused on this market full of "guppies" that would die: He sees how attractive the economics are after selling compute to $GOOGL and Anthropic. And this is reflected by his actions not words, from SpaceX's recent $40B financing for GPUs procurement. $AMZN, $MSFT, and even $META also see how profitable the economics are and are accelerating their AI DC buildouts. I'd argue if a Neocloud has: - Close relationships with $NVDA + others for allocations - Existing contracted capacity + permitting - Well funded counterparties, such as Hyperscalers. - Attractive economics, such as financing their procurement correctly (not the way $CRWV has with high debt interest unless they refinance). Then I think they'll do just fine... However, the bigger worry is more toward newer players starting financing or the permitting process, since barrier to entry has now become extremely high. For financing, read through on $IREN earnings has shown public Neoclouds can adapt extremely well to tight markets: As seen with their 90% prepayments for GPU capex on a 5Y deal. Their older H100 GPUs recontracted at double their previous pricing and 12% higher contracted pricing also point against depreciation fears. And in the case DC buildouts slow from permitting delays... it heavily favors some over others. Rosenblatt's recent note for example stated they see little risk with $NBIS primary buildout that was in Missouri, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina. And there's probably less risk with developers in places like Australia. Markets have also show this infinite compute arbitrage can't go on forever, hence the reluctance to further finance capex, via things like ATMs. But ironically, tighter financing and hypothetical restrictive permitting would increase the competitive advantage of established neoclouds. And create a larger moat against newer DC developers.

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

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MOH · long

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