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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

$FTNT already has a fast-growing OT security business of more than $1bn. Robots will face the same security problems as factory machines. Factory equipment and IoT devices were designed for availability and safety. They shipped with weak or no security, and controls were added afterwards. Robots and humanoids are likely to follow the same pattern. Many will run custom or stripped-down operating systems, have tight CPU and power budgets, and sit under safety-certification rules that make heavyweight endpoint agents and frequent patches difficult. When security software is hard to install on the device, enforcement moves to the network: segment the environment, control which systems can talk to which, and inspect the traffic. That work needs a lot of switches inside the plant, in addition to a few firewalls at the perimeter. FortiSwitch is built to be price-competitive for cost-conscious industrial buyers, with security functions embedded and ASIC acceleration for always-on inspection. Endpoint vendors such as $CRWD can help protect higher-value machines, but their software has to run on the device itself, which is often hard on robots for the same reasons. As inference moves into factories, hospitals, warehouses and vehicles, every new AI-controlled actuator still sits on a network, often on the industrial backbones Fortinet already protects.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

$MSFT outlining their view of digital work and application stack of the future: - Copilot as the UI/OS for getting work done - Supported by the context layer of Microsoft IQ, bringing in data from all of your other tools - Connected to an “infinite software factory” to build personalized apps that help you get work done more efficiently, running on a managed infra layer that keeps data within the rails and avoiding app sprawl - and he is clear that existing Systems of Record need to evolve to support this structure or be replaced.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

$SKYD should probably be a ~$4 stock. Unlike $PARA and $WBD it cannot breakup/sell - the only way out is through. Thats no easy road: starting almost 7x levered and needs to achieve MSD growth and to find $6B synergies from two companies that have already been thoroughly gutted to hit their deleveraging plan. Interest expense 150% of FCF. Rates exploding higher so they better hope they can de-lever. Potential seismic changes to entertainment in next 3-5yrs from generative content and short-form competition are existential threats. With any decline in revenue $SKYD will not be able to afford its sports rights renewals and the entire legacy business falls apart from there. Putting ~30% odds $NFLX gets another shot at WB studio in eventual bankruptcy. If you disagree and you are optimistic, please share why? I'm openminded but do not currently see it. Mgmt seems shell-shocked in Faber interview this AM getting a few tough questions. https://t.co/RKBucH3xlT
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

$NVDA vs $AVGO: The Optical Edge NVIDIA can keep growing while facing pressure from more directions. Custom chips, optical supply constraints and specialized inference systems give customers more reasons to consider alternatives. Broadcom’s optical capabilities could help it win the accompanying compute order. Customers need both accelerators and the optical components that connect them to bring capacity online. Securing those components alongside an ASIC purchase could shift the customer’s platform choice toward AVGO. Control across lasers, photonic and electronic chips, and packaging also gives Broadcom more freedom to optimize the complete design. Embedded lasers could reduce the laser power required, easing dependence on scarce, high-power external lasers, although replacement becomes harder. For AVGO, this remains a potential design route. NVIDIA can respond through partnerships, but separate suppliers still have their own margins and product priorities. Google ($GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) are expanding the alternatives through TPUs and Trainium. Our ABBX model allocates 10GW of Anthropic’s 13.8GW planned capacity to those two platforms. The plans span different timelines, but show how a few large buyers could redirect substantial spending away from GPUs. Huawei adds pressure through its integrated optical approach and the prospect of Chinese models supplying cheaper tokens internationally. That could affect both hardware choices and the prices compute providers can charge. Cerebras ($CBRS) targets workloads where faster responses matter. It can compete for latency-sensitive decoding without replacing GPUs across every stage of inference. NVIDIA’s defenses remain substantial. GPU batching supports high total output, flexibility across workloads matters, and its ecosystem is deeply established. Customers can use GPUs for prefill and specialized chips for decoding. Wider enterprise model development would also favor NVIDIA because smaller buyers have less reason to fund custom-chip programmes. At comparable valuations, we prefer adding to AVGO: it can benefit from custom-silicon adoption while helping customers secure the optics needed to deploy it. For NVIDIA, the key question is how much market share and pricing power it retains as customers gain more alternatives.

Investor Letters

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Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

AMD Earnings Review

AMD reported $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, with Data Center sales up 97% to $8.5 billion, and guided Q4 revenue to $17 billion.

AMD $660B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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